Quantitative Easing (QE3) is on Its Way…. Once QE2 and QE3 meet, inflation will go right through the roof.

QE3 is on the way accompanied by almost zero official interest rates. QE1 was to bail out the financial sectors in the US and Europe and QE2 was to bail out US government debt. That is why the Fed has purchased 70% to 80% of Treasuries. Previous debt and the $1.6 trillion of new debt created this year means someone has to buy that debt and there are very few buyers. That means the Fed has to buy most of paper with funds created out of thin air in this monetization process. Those tremendous amounts of funds will most certainly increase inflation. This policy is never ending unless default becomes inevitable. That is why money and credit has to be created indefinitely until hyperinflation occurs and the system eventually collapses. It is no surprise then along with economic, financial, social and political instability that there has been a steady movement into gold and silver related assets and commodities. As long as stimulus of one form or another continues to be used the problems won’t be solved and these investment vehicles will move higher and higher. Every time money and credit are created with no collateralized backing, such as gold and silver, the value of these aggregates in circulation falls, and such an endless cycle guarantees the demise of the currency and the rising value of gold and silver.

           
Recent tragic events in Japan has brought some unexpected developments, which for the time being could lift the economy from depression at least on a temporary basis. Funds committed aggregate just under $1 trillion not the official $309 billion. We believe the funds could be raised initially in the following way: $300 billion from the postal savings plan; $300 billion from yen bonds sold in the international market and $300 billion from the liquidation of US government and other US dollar denominated securities. That is for cleanup and infrastructure. Then Japanese insurance companies, as well as foreign insurers, have to raise billions more to pay off the insured.

In Japan’s quest to reconstruct the region affected demand for commodities will increase putting added upward pressure on commodity markets. Not only for base metals and materials, but for food stuffs as well, due to contamination and the disruption in material and food distribution. Needless to say, these problems will create inflation, something not seen in Japan for almost 20 years. Trade surplus will become trade deficit and result in a balance of payments deficit. This tragedy could cost Japan its converted position in the top 5 industrial nations of the world. These events will probably as well lead to the end of the yen carry trade, which has funded speculation worldwide for many years. It will affect exports, but also the purchase of US Treasuries. The recent effort, illegal and unprecedented, by G-7 countries to rescue the yen was in reality a move to purchase US Treasuries being sold by Japan. Yes, the yen fell from $.76 to $.81, but that is a transitory move. Central banks and governments didn’t want upward pressure on real interest rates, the Fed having to buy all that paper, or the possibility of default by the US. Short term the bailout worked, but now the Fed has to buy the bonds from G-7 members over a period of time putting further pressure on the Fed balance sheet and create more monetization. What you saw was a cleanup operation akin to QE2 that might be termed a QE3 for the Fed. Insiders and others in bond markets in the G-7 know what went on but the public doesn’t. It is not surprising that the dollar has been under downward pressure recently. Such currency dilution and depreciation can only lead to further upward pressure on gold and silver in the coming months. You might call the situation global monetization caused by the G-7. This as well will be a catalyst for global price inflation in the coming months, something most people are currently unaware of. This outpouring of money creation will probably take six months to a year and one-half to show up in the form of inflation. It will enlarge the inflation problem of QE2 and stimulus 2. The operation to devalue the yen in the marketplace and mop up Japanese sales of treasuries will go on until Japan has enough fluid cash to get reconstruction underway. Japan’s unfortunate plight might be a diversion, but it will prove to be an expensive one for all the countries involved. What is going on in this area will probably only be recognized by a handful of professionals. Most investors and the public will never know what transpired. This procedure could well have set the scene for hyperinflation in 2013. If QE3 becomes reality it can only be worse. Of course, this sets the stage for hard times for citizens of G-7 countries and others and it will send gold and silver considerably higher.

           
The Fed has for years, and the Treasury as well via the Exchange Stabilization Fund, been intervening in the currency markets. It is part of the legal function of both entities under the Executive Order, signed by President Ronald Reagan, known as “The President’s Working Group on Financial Markets.” The ESF is a legal subsidiary of the Treasury Department created in the 1930s to smooth currency markets. It is used frequently and could have as much as $1 trillion and when used with leverage can affect currency markets for several days in a row. It was used illegally in 1995 to assist Mexico when its economy was about to collapse. Two weeks ago for the first time in a long time, the Fed admitted intervening in currency markets, something they and the ESF do every day via JPM, GS and Citi. the last time we saw open Fed currency activity was 10 years ago in behalf of a falling euro.

These are the kind of things government and the privately owned Fed get away with and the public never knows, because the media refuses to expose what they are up too. Another perfect example is the rigging of the gold and silver markets. Overwhelming evidence of such manipulation is presented every day and the media refuses to carry it. The bottom line is once QE 2, intervention and QE3 meet, inflation will go right through the roof.

View the original article here

Quantitative Easing (QE3) is on Its Way…. Once QE2 and QE3 meet, inflation will go right through the roof.

QE3 is on the way accompanied by almost zero official interest rates. QE1 was to bail out the financial sectors in the US and Europe and QE2 was to bail out US government debt. That is why the Fed has purchased 70% to 80% of Treasuries. Previous debt and the $1.6 trillion of new debt created this year means someone has to buy that debt and there are very few buyers. That means the Fed has to buy most of paper with funds created out of thin air in this monetization process. Those tremendous amounts of funds will most certainly increase inflation. This policy is never ending unless default becomes inevitable. That is why money and credit has to be created indefinitely until hyperinflation occurs and the system eventually collapses. It is no surprise then along with economic, financial, social and political instability that there has been a steady movement into gold and silver related assets and commodities. As long as stimulus of one form or another continues to be used the problems won’t be solved and these investment vehicles will move higher and higher. Every time money and credit are created with no collateralized backing, such as gold and silver, the value of these aggregates in circulation falls, and such an endless cycle guarantees the demise of the currency and the rising value of gold and silver.

           
Recent tragic events in Japan has brought some unexpected developments, which for the time being could lift the economy from depression at least on a temporary basis. Funds committed aggregate just under $1 trillion not the official $309 billion. We believe the funds could be raised initially in the following way: $300 billion from the postal savings plan; $300 billion from yen bonds sold in the international market and $300 billion from the liquidation of US government and other US dollar denominated securities. That is for cleanup and infrastructure. Then Japanese insurance companies, as well as foreign insurers, have to raise billions more to pay off the insured.

In Japan’s quest to reconstruct the region affected demand for commodities will increase putting added upward pressure on commodity markets. Not only for base metals and materials, but for food stuffs as well, due to contamination and the disruption in material and food distribution. Needless to say, these problems will create inflation, something not seen in Japan for almost 20 years. Trade surplus will become trade deficit and result in a balance of payments deficit. This tragedy could cost Japan its converted position in the top 5 industrial nations of the world. These events will probably as well lead to the end of the yen carry trade, which has funded speculation worldwide for many years. It will affect exports, but also the purchase of US Treasuries. The recent effort, illegal and unprecedented, by G-7 countries to rescue the yen was in reality a move to purchase US Treasuries being sold by Japan. Yes, the yen fell from $.76 to $.81, but that is a transitory move. Central banks and governments didn’t want upward pressure on real interest rates, the Fed having to buy all that paper, or the possibility of default by the US. Short term the bailout worked, but now the Fed has to buy the bonds from G-7 members over a period of time putting further pressure on the Fed balance sheet and create more monetization. What you saw was a cleanup operation akin to QE2 that might be termed a QE3 for the Fed. Insiders and others in bond markets in the G-7 know what went on but the public doesn’t. It is not surprising that the dollar has been under downward pressure recently. Such currency dilution and depreciation can only lead to further upward pressure on gold and silver in the coming months. You might call the situation global monetization caused by the G-7. This as well will be a catalyst for global price inflation in the coming months, something most people are currently unaware of. This outpouring of money creation will probably take six months to a year and one-half to show up in the form of inflation. It will enlarge the inflation problem of QE2 and stimulus 2. The operation to devalue the yen in the marketplace and mop up Japanese sales of treasuries will go on until Japan has enough fluid cash to get reconstruction underway. Japan’s unfortunate plight might be a diversion, but it will prove to be an expensive one for all the countries involved. What is going on in this area will probably only be recognized by a handful of professionals. Most investors and the public will never know what transpired. This procedure could well have set the scene for hyperinflation in 2013. If QE3 becomes reality it can only be worse. Of course, this sets the stage for hard times for citizens of G-7 countries and others and it will send gold and silver considerably higher.

           
The Fed has for years, and the Treasury as well via the Exchange Stabilization Fund, been intervening in the currency markets. It is part of the legal function of both entities under the Executive Order, signed by President Ronald Reagan, known as “The President’s Working Group on Financial Markets.” The ESF is a legal subsidiary of the Treasury Department created in the 1930s to smooth currency markets. It is used frequently and could have as much as $1 trillion and when used with leverage can affect currency markets for several days in a row. It was used illegally in 1995 to assist Mexico when its economy was about to collapse. Two weeks ago for the first time in a long time, the Fed admitted intervening in currency markets, something they and the ESF do every day via JPM, GS and Citi. the last time we saw open Fed currency activity was 10 years ago in behalf of a falling euro.

These are the kind of things government and the privately owned Fed get away with and the public never knows, because the media refuses to expose what they are up too. Another perfect example is the rigging of the gold and silver markets. Overwhelming evidence of such manipulation is presented every day and the media refuses to carry it. The bottom line is once QE 2, intervention and QE3 meet, inflation will go right through the roof.

View the original article here

London set to limit right to protest

Press TV
March 30, 2011

The British government has announced controversial plans to ban protesters from taking part in public gatherings following the weekend anti-cuts rallies, which were marred by violence.

Based on a proposal by Home Secretary Theresa May, the police may be given new powers to prevent so-called hooligans from attending rallies and marches while officers will also be authorized to force demonstrators, who do not want to be known, to remove their face-scarves and balaclavas.

The announcement has raised concerns among MPs who say no hasty decision should be made on the issue as the police may abuse the “stop and search” powers to target ordinary people rather than “known hooligans”.

May outlined her plans during an emergency Commons briefing on the violent incidents, which marred the Saturday rally organized by the Trades Union Congress.

May told the MPs that she is considering “banning orders” similar to those used against football hooligans for the demonstrators who police thinks may turn to violence.

She also said officers should force more protestors to remove their masks and balaclavas to help the police quickly identify participants in the rallies.

A d v e r t i s e m e n t

“Just as the police review their operational tactics, so the Home Office will review the powers available to the police. I have asked the police whether they need further powers to prevent violence before it occurs. I am willing to consider powers which would ban known hooligans from rallies and marches and I will look into the powers the police already have to force the removal of face-coverings and balaclavas,” May said.

While the Metropolitan Police earlier said it has charged 149 people out of more than 200 arrested during the Saturday rallies with various offenses, at least five people have lodged complaints with Scotland Yard about police violence against marchers.

The Met said on Monday that it has charged 138 people in connection with the sit-in at Fortnum & Mason luxury store for charges including aggravated trespass.

However, the UK Uncut, which organized the sit-in dismissed any claims that those participating in the Fortnum & Mason incident resorted to violence.

“This was not a protest by people wearing balaclavas and breaking things. It was a peaceful and mild-mannered gathering by people from all walks of life – teachers, hospital workers, charity workers,” said Tim Matthews, a spokesman for UK Uncut.

“People who took part now find themselves charged with a criminal offence simply for exercising their right to protest,” he added.

This come as Tom Brake MP, co-chair of the Liberal Democrat parliamentary policy committee on home affairs, justice and equalities warned the government against “a knee-jerk reaction” to what happened.

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“Clearly there was a small minority who were out to cause trouble. We need to look in detail into whether the police have sufficient powers to tackle that, or whether they can be deployed differently to ensure such violent scenes don’t happen again,” Brake said.

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Data Protection: forget about a “right to forget”

By Chris Pounder of HawkTalk Last week, I had a speaking slot at the Westminster Media Forum’s event on “Social media, online privacy and the right to be forgotten”. My comment that the proposed “right to forget won’t work” was widely reported, so I think it is incumbent on me to detail the argument. I also think there is a better way of dealing with this issue through the use of the “right to object” to the processing. The “right to forget” is very laudable. It means all those useful youthful indiscretions (where one shudders with embarrassment when one remembers...

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Jim Berkland was right. There was a Quake

From the Halls of Montezuma,To the shores of Tripoli

Happy Nowruz! We are Numerically and Karmically screwed. The Persian new year and the Super Moon Perigee event have taken place within the same harmonic window right along time-shift from Pisces to Aquarius. For you uninitiated out there this means we are in for big KaKa. Mega-quakes, revolution, money problems and big War are in the stars.

Bas-relief in Persepolis. A Zoroastrian symbol of Nowruz – on the vernal equinox the powers of the eternally fighting bull (personifying the Earth) and lion (personifying the Sun) are equal.

Say again please. Eternally fighting Bull getting ass chewed by a Lion.

Translate =Israel [Lion] is going to attack Iran [Bull]

Also note SUN attacks EARTH. Great symbolism. Maybe a X-39 class solar flare…

Analysis: All of the Mideast is going to swing into the Persian camp just because the WEST has screwed up so much. Arabs hate Persians more than they hate Jews and Americans… and that is saying a lot. NATO and Specifically the United States could have and should have killed Qaddafi weeks ago, before he slaughtered thousands of innocent people.

Americas sin is not using too much power… it is not using enough power when the time is right. We all get that Iraq and Afghanistan were big mistakes. But it is time to move on. Qaddafi and his kin should be sucking sand right now somewhere in the Northern Sahara. This guy is a murderer and Terrorist.

Will Libya turn into another quagmire? Yes… by default anything to do with European allies and Arabs turns into a Clusterfukk for the U.S.

?

Tags: earthquake, Iran, Jim Berkland, Libya, Newyear, Perigee, USA, war
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Just What Japan Really Needs Right Now

The world's favourite feminist pressure group** have been indulging in their particular brand of Ukrainian agitprop again - that is, getting their norks out - this time in support of the Japanese people.

Yes, I know there's not much in evidence in that picture, but some people read this at work doncha know. Plenty here though if you're, ahem, interested and/or have an understanding boss.

Apparently, this is all about solidarity with tsunami victims, and nothing whatsoever to do with ... well, I don't know precisely what they were thinking, to be honest.

FEMEN conducts an action in support of the Japanese people. “Praise those who defeat the dragon!” FEMEN are earnestly inspired by the Japanese people who were able to overcome this disaster. Their strength, their samurai self-control, their heroic actions in time of crisis should serve as examples for all of us. Japan has proved their ability to rise from the ashes before and we believe they will defeat the Dragon before the cherry blossoms bloom.

Huh?

If they had just said they were getting their nips out for the Nips it would have made more sense.

** And I'm a big supporter of feminist causes, as I have mentioned before.

View the original article here

OECD agrees with the British public that sorting out the public finances is the right thing to do

OECD agrees with the British public that sorting out the public finances is the right thing to do
Matthew Sinclair  •  Economics 101  •  Wednesday 16 March 2011

The OECD has released a new report on the state of the British economy.  It has a number of interesting recommendations – for example more autonomy for schools to improve performance – but the central message is that the fiscal consolidation is right and necessary.  Spending cuts planned are vital to build a sustainable economic recovery.

Bumper receipts from the booming financial sector obscured the scale of the problem before the financial crisis, but it is now very clear that a substantial change is needed.  While the unions and some politicians are still trying to mount an irresponsible opposition insisting no cuts are necessary, they have lost the argument.   The Guardian’s poll on Monday revealed that the public support spending cuts too.  The real debate now is about how we can best manage that process.

“The UK economy emerged from the 2008–09 recession with elevated public and private debt and high unemployment. Strong growth and macroeconomic stability in the run–up to the crisis had hidden a build–up of significant imbalances, influenced by overreliance on debt–finance and the financial sector, and booming asset prices. These imbalances need to be addressed to ensure a sustainable and balanced recovery. The government is pursuing a necessary and wide ranging programme of fiscal consolidation and structural reforms aimed at achieving stronger growth and a rebalancing of the
economy over time.

A broad based recovery started in end–2009, but faces significant headwinds during 2011, which can be mitigated by monetary policy remaining supportive. The planned fiscal consolidation is needed to ensure that the fiscal position will be sustainable over time. Nonetheless, it adds to the headwinds from weak real income growth and a fading rebound in global trade. Monetary policy should hence remain expansionary, even if headline inflation is significantly above target, to support the recovery.”

Their argument for a permanent fiscal framework is one important area where the Government could improve.  In the book How to Cut Public Spending (and Still Win an Election) we looked at how expenditure targets could help to deliver a more effective fiscal consolidation.  They should still be put in place.

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Why I’m not worried about Greenland’s icecap right now

There’s some blogospheric carping about his statement in the JPL press release below regarding Greenland’s ice sheets:“… their cumulative loss could raise sea level by 15 centimeters (5.9 inches) by 2050.”

Well sure, it could be, but as this recent surprise study from GISS’s neighbors at Columbia illustrates, even though we’ve had the GRACE (Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment) satellite looking at Antarctica, and concluding there’s been ice mass loss there, we have this new study that shows ice being added from underneath due to meltwater refreeze, concluding the models to be wrong.

It goes to demonstrate that we really don’t understand ice sheet mechanics well enough yet to make accurate forecasts, though some people think we can.

Add to that, GRACE has it’s own set of problems. And at least one model conlcusion has been revised post facto because the melt data is overestimated:

The melting of the ice sheets of Greenland and West Antarctica is about twice as slow as previously thought. The study, conducted by TU Delft, SRON and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The scientists published their findings in the September issue of Nature Geoscience.

We have concluded that the Greenland and West Antarctica ice caps are melting at approximately half the speed originally predicted.’ The average rise in sea levels as a result of the melting ice caps is also lower.

In fact, errors from GRACE may be quite large. So take this new release from JPL and the squawking about the forecasted sea level rise with a grain of salt. But more importantly, look at what the actual sea-level data is saying, and a Willis Eschenbach points out, natures seems to be Putting the Brakes on Acceleration.

From JPL: NASA Finds Polar Ice Adding More to Rising Seas

Store Glacier, West Greenland. A new NASA funded study finds that the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are losing mass at an accelerating pace, three times faster than that of mountain glaciers and ice caps. Image credit: Eric Rignot, NASA JPL
› Full image and caption

PASADENA, Calif. — The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are losing mass at an accelerating pace, according to a new NASA-funded satellite study. The findings of the study — the longest to date of changes in polar ice sheet mass — suggest these ice sheets are overtaking ice loss from Earth’s mountain glaciers and ice caps to become the dominant contributor to global sea level rise, much sooner than model forecasts have predicted.

The nearly 20-year study reveals that in 2006, a year in which comparable results for mass loss in mountain glaciers and ice caps are available from a separate study conducted using other methods, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets lost a combined mass of 475 gigatonnes a year on average. That’s enough to raise global sea level by an average of 1.3 millimeters (.05 inches) a year. (A gigatonne is one billion metric tons, or more than 2.2 trillion pounds.)

The pace at which the polar ice sheets are losing mass was found to be accelerating rapidly. Each year over the course of the study, the two ice sheets lost a combined average of 36.3 gigatonnes more than they did the year before. In comparison, the 2006 study of mountain glaciers and ice caps estimated their loss at 402 gigatonnes a year on average, with a year-over-year acceleration rate three times smaller than that of the ice sheets.

“That ice sheets will dominate future sea level rise is not surprising — they hold a lot more ice mass than mountain glaciers,” said lead author Eric Rignot, jointly of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif., and the University of California, Irvine. “What is surprising is this increased contribution by the ice sheets is already happening. If present trends continue, sea level is likely to be significantly higher than levels projected by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007. Our study helps reduce uncertainties in near-term projections of sea level rise.”

Rignot’s team combined nearly two decades (1992-2009) of monthly satellite measurements with advanced regional atmospheric climate model data to examine changes in ice sheet mass and trends in acceleration of ice loss.

The study compared two independent measurement techniques. The first characterized the difference between two sets of data: interferometric synthetic aperture radar data from European, Canadian and Japanese satellites and radio echo soundings, which were used to measure ice exiting the ice sheets; and regional atmospheric climate model data from Utrecht University, The Netherlands, used to quantify ice being added to the ice sheets. The other technique used eight years of data from the NASA/German Aerospace Center’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (Grace) satellites, which track minute changes in Earth’s gravity field due to changes in Earth’s mass distribution, including ice movement.

The team reconciled the differences between techniques and found them to be in agreement, both for total amount and rate of mass loss, over their data sets’ eight-year overlapping period. This validated the data sets, establishing a consistent record of ice mass changes since 1992.

The team found that for each year over the 18-year study, the Greenland ice sheet lost mass faster than it did the year before, by an average of 21.9 gigatonnes a year. In Antarctica, the year-over-year speedup in ice mass lost averaged 14.5 gigatonnes.

“These are two totally independent techniques, so it is a major achievement that the results agree so well,” said co-author Isabella Velicogna, also jointly with JPL and UC Irvine. “It demonstrates the tremendous progress that’s being made in estimating how much ice the ice sheets are gaining and losing, and in analyzing Grace’s time-variable gravity data.”

The authors conclude that, if current ice sheet melting rates continue for the next four decades, their cumulative loss could raise sea level by 15 centimeters (5.9 inches) by 2050. When this is added to the predicted sea level contribution of 8 centimeters (3.1 inches) from glacial ice caps and 9 centimeters (3.5 inches) from ocean thermal expansion, total sea level rise could reach 32 centimeters (12.6 inches). While this provides one indication of the potential contribution ice sheets could make to sea level in the coming century, the authors caution that considerable uncertainties remain in estimating future ice loss acceleration.

Study results are published this month in Geophysical Research Letters. Other participating institutions include the Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, The Netherlands; and the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colo.

JPL developed Grace and manages the mission for NASA. The University of Texas Center for Space Research in Austin has overall mission responsibility. GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam (GFZ), Potsdam, Germany, is responsible for German mission elements.

More on Grace is online at http://www.csr.utexas.edu/grace/ and http://grace.jpl.nasa.gov/ .

JPL is managed for NASA by the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.

===========================================================

Here’s the paper abstract at GRL:

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 38, L05503, 5 PP., 2011
doi:10.1029/2011GL046583

Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sea level rise

E. Rignot

Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, California, USA

Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, USA

I. Velicogna

Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, California, USA

Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, USA

M. R. van den Broeke

Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands

A. Monaghan

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA

J. Lenaerts

Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands

Ice sheet mass balance estimates have improved substantially in recent years using a variety of techniques, over different time periods, and at various levels of spatial detail. Considerable disparity remains between these estimates due to the inherent uncertainties of each method, the lack of detailed comparison between independent estimates, and the effect of temporal modulations in ice sheet surface mass balance. Here, we present a consistent record of mass balance for the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets over the past two decades, validated by the comparison of two independent techniques over the last 8 years: one differencing perimeter loss from net accumulation, and one using a dense time series of time-variable gravity. We find excellent agreement between the two techniques for absolute mass loss and acceleration of mass loss. In 2006, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets experienced a combined mass loss of 475 ± 158 Gt/yr, equivalent to 1.3 ± 0.4 mm/yr sea level rise. Notably, the acceleration in ice sheet loss over the last 18 years was 21.9 ± 1 Gt/yr2 for Greenland and 14.5 ± 2 Gt/yr2 for Antarctica, for a combined total of 36.3 ± 2 Gt/yr2. This acceleration is 3 times larger than for mountain glaciers and ice caps (12 ± 6 Gt/yr2). If this trend continues, ice sheets will be the dominant contributor to sea level rise in the 21st century.

Received 4 January 2011; accepted 2 February 2011; published 4 March 2011.

Citation: Rignot, E., I. Velicogna, M. R. van den Broeke, A. Monaghan, and J. Lenaerts (2011), Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sea level rise, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L05503, doi:10.1029/2011GL046583.

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Are The Prophets Of Doom Right About Major War, $200 Oil, $2000 Gold And Dow 5000 By The End Of 2012?

Are the "prophets of doom" right? Is a major war going to erupt in the Middle East? Is the price of oil going to $200 a barrel? Is the price of gold going to hit $2000 at some point over the next two years? Is the Dow going to drop to 5000 by the end of 2012?  Right now there are some very respected financial experts that are making some absolutely stunning predictions.  Charles Nenner, Gerald Celente and Lindsey Williams are all frequent guests on popular television and radio shows and they are all forecasting very difficult economic times over the next couple of years.  So are they right?

Well, only time will tell.  But it really is quite alarming that so many experts with such long track records are warning of economic disaster.

So what exactly are some of these "prophets of doom" predicting?  Well, let's take a closer look at some of them.

In this first video, Charles Nenner, a former technical analyst for Goldman Sachs, tells Fox Business that he is projecting that a major war will start some time around the end of 2012 and that the Dow is going to plunge all the way to 5000....

In this next video, Gerald Celente of the Trends Research Institute tells Fox News that he is expecting a tremendous amount of economic chaos over the next couple of years and that he believes that the price of gold will rise to $2000 at some point.  For years Celente has been boldly proclaiming that "the Greatest Depression" is heading our way and what he is saying now is quite alarming....

In this last video, Lindsey Williams tells Alex Jones that his high level contacts have told him that there is going to be tremendous chaos in the Middle East and that the price of oil is ultimately going to be in the neighborhood of $150 to $200 a barrel.  Considering how correct Lindsey Williams has been in the past this is a very sobering warning....

But Nenner, Celente and Williams are not the only ones that are warning that economic disaster is coming.

Bill Gross is the manager of the biggest bond fund in the world, and he is acknowledging that his firm, PIMCO, is dumping all of their U.S. Treasury bonds.  Gross has been concerned about the state of the world financial system for quite some time and now his firm has made a very bold move.

Legendary investor Carl Icahn is so spooked that he is booting all of the other investors out of his hedge funds.  The following is how The New York Post recently described it....

The 75-year-old shareholder agitator announced yesterday he was shutting off outside investors from his hedge funds and returning all of their money, claiming he can't stomach the idea of clients suffering more losses after a brutal 2008.

A lot of people in the financial community are running scared right now and we haven't even had anything really bad happen yet.

But many average Americans have a really bad feeling about where things are headed as well.  A brand new Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 64 percent of Americans believe that the country is going in the wrong direction.

Of course regular readers of this column know that I have been discussing a coming economic breakdown for a long time now.  There is simply no way that the current system can keep going indefinitely.  We have been living in the greatest debt bubble that the world has ever seen, and that has enabled us to enjoy an unprecedented standard of living, but now a day of reckoning is fast approaching.

The entire global financial system is based on debt and speculation.  A mountain of derivatives that is so large that it defies imagination is constantly hanging over our heads and could come crashing down at any moment.  The entire continent of Europe is dealing with a major sovereign debt crisis that is growing worse by the day.  The municipal bond market is also on the verge of total collapse.  Now on top of everything else the price of oil is skyrocketing and that could cause a major economic slowdown all by itself.

The Federal Reserve and other major central banks have been doing their best to "paper over" all of the financial problems, but the bailouts can't last forever.  At some point the Ponzi scheme is going to come to an end.

Once upon a time even if the rest of the world was having tremendous economic trouble everyone could still count on the U.S. economy to be a rock.

But that is no longer the case.

Every single month the U.S. government goes into even more debt, our state governments go into even more debt and our local governments go into even more debt.  Meanwhile, thousands of factories and millions of jobs continue to be shipped out of the United States.  Our economy is literally being hollowed out, and as Gerald Celente correctly points out, we are being rapidly deindustrialized.  We have become a nation that consumes far more wealth than it produces.  Every single month far more money goes out of the country than comes into it and this is draining our national wealth at an astounding pace.

The U.S. economy is becoming weaker with each passing day.  Hundreds of cities and towns across the country have been transformed into "economic dead zones".  Our leaders are trying to convince us that a higher level of unemployment is "normal" now, but very few people are buying it.  44 million Americans are now on food stamps, and millions of American families are rapidly losing hope.

The Federal Reserve can continue to print trillions of dollars and the U.S. government can continue to borrow trillions of dollars, but anyone with half a brain can see that the end of the game is fast approaching.

Financial disaster may strike in 2011, 2012, 2013 or at some point after that, but the truth is that it is coming.  Our leaders can use all of their tricks to keep the balls in the air for as long as possible, but at some point they are going to fall.

So don't dismiss men like Nenner, Celente and Williams.  Their predictions may or may not turn out to be 100 percent accurate, but they are most definitely on to something.

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MAIS OUI! French Jews embrace far right anti-Islam candidate Marine Le Pen

LeParisien –For 40 minutes this Thursday the president of the FN will for the first time be the political guest on the Radio J Forum which is broadcast every week early in the afternoon. ”I think what she said about the Shoah challenges the whole legacy of Holocaust denial by the Front National and her father,” Frédéric Haziza, head of policy at the station, explained.

Marine Le Pen said early in February in The Point that what “occurred” in the Nazi camps “is the epitome of barbarism”. “Marine Le Pen is not Jean-Marie Le Pen, for whom the gas chambers are a detail of history”, said Haziza, recalling the words of the former president of the FN.

Clearly this represents a major advance in Marine Le Pen’s campaign to “de-demonise” the FN. Jean-Yves Camus, an expert on the far right, has condemned Radio J’s decision as “total communal irresponsibility”, motivated by the urge to boost ratings. He adds that the breakthrough for Marine Le Pen is the acceptability of her language on “immigration and Islam” among a section of the Jewish community.

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Categories: Islamization of the West . . Author: barenakedislam

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U.K., other countries showing the courage to get policy right!

Here in the U.S., we have a problem: A lack of courage in Washington. Specifically, the courage among policymakers to make the difficult decisions — and take the difficult actions — to deal with our financial problems.

For one thing, our politicians are preaching budget restraint, but pursuing the greatest budget-busting tactics of all time. The National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform’s report, released December 1, 2010, has been all but forgotten.

President Obama’s budget, released just over 10 weeks later, proves it. It projects a massive $1.65 trillion deficit for fiscal 2011 … and more than $7.2 trillion in additional deficits in the decade thereafter!

On Capitol Hill this week, Bernanke didn’t rule out expanding the so-called quantitative easing program.

For another thing, our central bankers say their mission is to fight inflation. But they’re pooh-poohing surging prices, refusing to slow down the printing press, and pegging interest rates near zero percent. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke made it crystal clear in Congressional testimony this week that he has no plans to change tacks.

As a result, our currency is tumbling against virtually every form of money on the planet — especially gold, which set a nominal new record of $1,437 an ounce this week. Meanwhile, other agricultural and energy commodities are going ballistic!

But there are many countries that appear to be taking a different approach. And there’s one nation in particular whose fiscal and monetary policies appear to be taking a turn for the better. That country?

The U.K.!

U.K. Trying to Right the Ship, Deal
with Financial Threats Head On

Like the U.S., the U.K. has spent several years overpromising, over borrowing, and overspending. That has left the U.K. with a debt load equal to roughly 61 percent of GDP — the highest since 1970. Its budget deficit surged to 11.4 percent of GDP in 2010, one of the worst among developed economies.

But unlike the U.S., fiscal and monetary policymakers are taking steps to right the ship. It’s a titanic battle between reckless, Keynesian policy in the U.S. and painful, but necessary, austerity in the U.K. And I believe it’s one the U.K. will win.

Will it be easy? Not at all. Prime Minister David Cameron is jacking up taxes and slashing spending in several arenas …

* In national defense, Britain is cutting its 37-billion-pound ($60 billion) annual military budget by 7.5 percent. The country plans to scrap or sell its 70-strong fleet of Harrier jets and mothball its flagship Ark Royal carrier.

* In public services, Cameron is proposing that volunteers or charities take over the operation of many schools and hospitals to reduce government costs.

* In retail, the country’s Value Added Tax just rose to 20 percent from 17.5 percent. And in education, the cost of attending university will double at many schools in 2012. Some students will pay three times the tuition they had to pay in 2011.

“The duty of this government is to deal with the economic mess that’s been left. We have got to deal with that deficit, we have got to make these cuts, we have got to put up these taxes.” — British PM David Cameron

Over on the monetary policy side of the ledger, the hawks are starting to spread their wings as I alluded to recently. We now have three Bank of England policymakers explicitly voting for interest rate hikes, much more dissent than we have here in the U.S.

I’m not going to suggest these moves are without consequences. Short-term growth is suffering, with British GDP slipping by 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter. But I believe the short-term pain will be offset by long-term economic gains.

The Lesson:
Invest in Disciplined Countries,
and Avoid the Rest!

You can already see the process starting, with money flowing away from the U.S. and toward the U.K. in the currency markets. The Dollar Index is at multi-month lows and threatening to break down from a three-year uptrend, while the pound is just shy of a 14-month high.

This underscores the message I’ve been preaching for some time: You want to invest in the countries with disciplined, prudent fiscal and monetary policies … and avoid the rest.

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Some countries that make the cut, in my book, include the U.K., Brazil, Singapore, New Zealand, Australia, Switzerland, and Canada.

You can invest in their short-term government debt securities … companies based in those countries with U.S.-listed shares … or ETFs that offer you diversified national exposure. Think the iShares MSCI Canada Index Fund (EWC) or CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust (FXF) here.

Until next time,

Mike

P.S. You don’t have to watch helplessly as Washington avoids doing what’s needed to dig the U.S. out of the mess we’re in. Click here to learn how my Safe Money Report can help you profit from countries that have the courage to take a prudent fiscal and monetary policy stance.

Mike Larson graduated from Boston University with a B.S. degree in Journalism and a B.A. degree in English in 1998, and went to work for Bankrate.com. There, he learned the mortgage and interest rates markets inside and out. Mike then joined Weiss Research in 2001. He is the editor of Safe Money, Interest Rates Profits and LEAPS Options Alert. He is often quoted by the New York Sun, Washington Post, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswires, Orlando Sentinel, Palm Beach Post and Sun-Sentinel, and he has appeared on CNN, Bloomberg Television and CNBC.

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