Join the TPA at the Rally Against Debt

Join the TPA at the Rally Against Debt
Matthew Sinclair  •  Home  •  Monday 04 April 2011

An exciting event, the Rally Against Debt, has been organised for 14 May.  It will be a major demonstration highlighting the importance of tackling the huge public sector deficit, and the need for substantial spending cuts.  So far over 1,300 people have signed up to a rally that aims to be a well mannered alternative to the unrealistic trade union march and the vandalism of the UK Uncut protest on March 26.  The TPA will be there and it would be great to see as many of our supporters as possible.  There are more details on this Facebook event page.  Please register that you will be attending on that page if you use Facebook.  If you don’t, then just turn up.

Today we can make an exciting announcement.  If the march reaches 2,000 people registered to attend then we will bring down the lorry mounted Debt Clock. The Debt Clock was a highlight of our campaign last year and can accompany the rally.  The huge and rapidly mounting figure displayed on the clock should really help drive its point home.  Thank you to Keltruck for sponsoring the lorry and making this possible.  Hopefully this can really be a landmark event in the campaign to secure responsible reductions in spending.  For more information on the march, see the frequently asked questions here.  Please register to attend if you can and then invite as many friends as possible.

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Up to 500,000 people rally against the government in London, UK

Home » Europe, Protests » Up to 500,000 people rally against the government in London, UK

Protesters on the anti-cuts march at the rally in Hyde Park, London.

These are the scenes in central London tonight as riot police struggle to control anti-capitalist protesters following the TUC’s national demonstration against the cuts.

Violence broke out in iconic London locations after splinter groups of activists broke away from the main demonstration and spread out across the centre of the city.

The Ritz hotel and Fortnum & Mason were among the buildings targeted in the capital as groups of rampaging youths fought running battles with riot police.

Clashes look set to continue into the night, as police use containment tactics to try to bring the mob under control.

Earlier, around 500,000 activists and campaigners descended on London this morning to protest at the Government’s drastic cuts programme.

But while the main march and rally in Hyde Park, which was addressed by Labour leader Ed Miliband, remained peaceful, splinter groups of anarchists went wild.

Hundreds of activists – many wearing masks and hoods – disrupted traffic, set off fireworks and flares in the busiest areas of the city including Piccadilly Circus, Oxford Street and Regent Street.

Lightbulbs filled with ammonia and paintbombs were thrown at police as they desperately tried to keep the peace.

Topshop and HSBC had their windows smashed, while paint and glass bottles were thrown at a Royal Bank of Scotland branch. The marauders also attacked The Ritz near Green Park, where they smashed windows with bins and road signs.

UK Uncut, an anti-cuts direct action group, later occupied the Fortnum & Mason store in Piccadilly, claiming the firm had ‘dodged’ paying taxes.

Civil disobedience: Demonstrators throw a road sign at a window of the Ritz Hotel.

Nine arrests were made and some police officers were injured.

The event, organised by the TUC, is believed to be the largest march since up to a million took to the streets in 2003 to oppose the war in Iraq. By 3pm, estimated participation was at 500,000.

TUC general secretary Brendan Barber said he ‘bitterly regretted’ the violence, adding that he hoped it would not detract from the massive anti-cuts protest.

‘I don’t think the activities of a few hundred people should take the focus away from the hundreds of thousands of people who have sent a powerful message to the Government today,’ he said.

‘Ministers should now seriously reconsider their whole strategy after today’s demonstration. This has been Middle Britain speaking.’

Mr Barber said unions would now step up pressure on the Government, especially MPs in their constituencies, and launch a series of protests next week in defence of the NHS.

London Ambulance Service said 30 people were treated for injuries throughout the day, 11 of whom were taken to hospital, ranging from assault to collapsing with illness.

Commander Bob Broadhurst said: ‘The main march has gone very well. Their estimates are 250,000 – maybe more – have come to central London and protested peacefully. That has gone as we expected.

‘Unfortunately, we have had over 500 criminals effectively attacking premises in the Oxford Circus area, causing damage.

‘We anticipated there would be some problems. We have minimised the damage caused. We’ll never have enough officers to protect every building in central London. it cannot be done.

‘The actual march has gone according to plan. Those damaging buildings have had nothing to do with the TUC.’

Mr Miliband defied calls to stay away in case the protest descended into anarchy and attempted to use the occasion to argue that his party offered an ‘alternative’.

The Labour leader described the gathering as ‘extraordinary’ and declared himself ‘profoundly moved’. He even likened the action to the anti-apartheid movement.

‘We come in the tradition of movements that have marched in peaceful but powerful protest for justice, fairness and political change,’ he said.

‘The suffragettes who fought for votes for women and won. The civil rights movement in America that fought against racism and won.

‘The anti apartheid movement that fought the horror of that system and won. The cause may be different but in coming together today to realise our voice, we are standing on the shoulders of those who have marched and struggled for great causes in the past.

‘Our struggle is to fight to preserve, protect and defend the best of the services we cherish because they represent the best of the country we love. We know what the government will say: that this is a march of the minority. They are so wrong.’

He added: ‘David Cameron: you wanted to create the big society. This is the big society. The big society united against what your government is doing to our country. We stand today not as the minority, but as the voice of the mainstream majority in this country.’

The demonstration was divided between chaos and peaceful action, with nurses, midwives, Gurkhas and teachers all on the streets.

Dave Prentis, general secretary of Unison, said the turnout was ‘absolutely enormous and showed the anger of ordinary working people at the Government’s cuts’.

As police fought with the violent fringe, the main group of marchers demonstrated peacefully and walked along the planned route without conflict.

Steel bands, choirs, performers and dancers performed while the mass of people, many with their children in tow, blew horns and whistles as they passed alongside Parliament.

Earlier, Education Secretary Michael Gove acknowledged the public concerns about the planned cuts, but insisted that the Government would not be deflected from its strategy.

‘Of course people will feel a sense of disquiet, in some cases anger, at what they see happening, but the difficulty we have as the Government inheriting a terrible economic mess, is that we have to take steps to bring the public finances back into balance,’ he said.

Activists’ websites had shown how they organised a ‘huge explosion of class hatred and anger’, specifically targeting banks and shops on Oxford Street.

Trade union leaders, who put on 600 coaches and nine trains to ferry protesters to the capital, insisted they only wanted a ‘safe, well-stewarded and family-friendly event’

But Len McCluskey, leader of the country’s biggest union, ramped up the rhetoric, saying anger towards cuts in public spending ‘needs to find a release’.

Scotland Yard have 4,500 officers on the streets and have warned they will use controversial ‘kettling’ techniques where necessary.

Source

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Silver Stocks Rally

The broad market took a kick in the teeth on the news of a bombing in Israel, but the silver stocks I follow are up – strongly.  So glad I added two silver picks to the Red-Hot Global Resources portfolio yesterday.

Why are silver miners doing so well? Because silver is doing so well.  Look at this chart of the iShares Silver Trust (SLV: 36.47 +0.9325 +2.62%), which holds physical silver …

The Israel bus bombing pushed the US dollar higher today on a flight-to-safety play (it was also oversold) but gold and silver both are heading higher today.  Hmm …

Tagged as: silver, slv

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"Gold Set To Rally" - Goldman Expects Gold To Promptly Rise To $1,480

As we are experiencing a furious regime change, the sellside positional updates are coming fast and furious. The latest major recommendation change comes again from Goldman which has just reiterated its belief gold will reach its 3 month target of $1,480 shortly. Of course, after a Cramer recommendation to buy the metal, this is the only call for a higher gold price that should be of great concern to everyone. From Goldman: "We expect gold prices to rally toward our 3-month price target of $1480/toz, and continue to recommend a long gold trade. While the protests and threat to oil supplies in the Middle East and North Africa drove COMEX gold prices to a new record high of $1437/toz on March 2, the events in Japan have paradoxically sent gold prices back below  $1400/toz despite the ongoing decline in US 10-year TIPS yields. Given the decline in US real interest rates, we see the recent retracement in gold prices as offering a good buying opportunity, and maintain our long gold trading recommendation as we expect gold to rally to our 3-month price target of $1480/toz."

Full report:

Gold to Rally Your rating: None Average: 5 (2 votes)

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On the Stimulus-Induced Rally and the European Debt Crisis

Last Wednesday, BNN’s Howard Green spoke to Rob Cox of Reuters and me about two issues: the monster rally from March 2009 and the ongoing European debt crisis.

On the markets, yes, I foresaw a rally two years ago because stock prices were depressed. Back in March 2009, I felt we were in an overshoot to the downside. But, it wasn’t clear whether the bear market rally that was sure to come as a result would have legs. It was only when rules on mark-to-market accounting were implemented and Wells Fargo had a breakout quarterly report in April 2009 that I became a true believer. And the upswing since has been longer and better than I thought likely two years ago.

Remember, it was conceivable in March 2009 that we could have a short rally and then overshoot even more to 450 on the S&P for example. Depression with a capital D was at the door. In the end, I felt the stimulus was going to power us higher. Both Rob and I see the rally as very much a stimulus-driven event. In my view the pre-QE2 swoon followed by another sizable rally post-QE2 announcement makes this case best. The question is whether the rally is sustainable without monetary and fiscal stimulus. We will see in the second half of 2011.

At a minimum, the election cycle is bullish for the economy, because the President wants the recovery to stick and will do whatever he can to ensure this outcome.

On Europe, you have three problems.

The ECB’s hawkishness is causing problems for the periphery. As usual a one-size-fits-all interest rate policy is challenging since Europe’s economies are not harmonised. An ECB rate rise will be a big problem in Ireland and Spain where they still have mortgage problems.Meanwhile Portugal is getting no relief in the market. It has a fairly low average interest rate on outstanding debts. But as it rolls over debts issued at 3 percent for paper at 7 percent, it will not be able to cut its deficits or debt. A bailout is likely as Portugal’s 10-year rate has been above 7 percent for at least four consecutive weeks.Spain is the crucial issue because Spain is such a large economy. Many of Spain’s cajas are insolvent. Solving that issue will be paramount for getting the debt crisis behind us. The stress tests will help us get there but right now they are not particularly stressful and I don’t see them being of any value.

Video below. [Click on image for video]

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In the Least Ugly Contest, the Dollar Is Ready to Rally!

Fundamentally, the U.S. has major problems. The government’s budget deficit is projected to hit a record $1.6 trillion this year — nearly 11 percent of the gross domestic product, making it the biggest gap between spending and revenues since World War II. And it is facing annual deficits of more than $1 trillion as far as the eye can see.

Even the Bank for International Settlement (BIS), often called the central banks’ central bank, has admitted that the current debt policy in the U.S. is unsustainable. Sooner or later it will lead to a funding crisis, which will then force major economic and political adjustments.

But Europe isn’t doing any better …

For example, credit default swap spreads on Greek government bonds recently widened by 24 basis points when Moody’s slashed the country’s credit rating three notches to B1. It has become increasingly obvious that Greece’s debt problem has not been solved and cannot be solved without debt restructuring — the politicians’ way of saying “debt default.”

Ireland and Portugal are in the same boat. And Spain isn’t far behind. Since Spanish real estate is still massively overvalued — some economists say by as much as 40 percent — Spain looks like an accident waiting to happen.

And what are Europe’s politicians doing about all of this?

Well, they are pretending that everything is A-OK and the European rescue package was the final solution to this major problem. Of course it is not …

You can’t wipe out mountains of debt by simply issuing more debt! The rescue package was nothing more than kicking the can down the road. It bought them some time. But it didn’t get them one iota closer to a solution.

And for an idea of what’s in store …

Look at Ireland for a Clue

Ireland just voted for a new government. I interpret that as a clear vote against the severe austerity program the European Union (EU) has urged Ireland to implement. Yet the Irish population has no incentive to bear that policy’s painful burden. Why should they?

After all, most Irish government bonds are held by foreign financial institutions and the European Central Bank (ECB). Why not let them share some of the burden; let them take some losses?

Didn’t Iceland do relatively well after it simply repudiated its debt? Why not follow this easier path, the Irish are understandingly starting to ask, even if the cost of doing so is to get rid of the euro.

And Greece, Portugal, Spain, and others might come to the same conclusion.

So as far as the dollar and the euro are concerned, it all comes down to a contest of ugliness … and you have to pick which is the least ugly!

But before you pick, you must understand that …

The Euro Has an Additional Problem …

The EU has a major disadvantage compared to the U.S. in dealing with over-indebtedness: Singular national interests. Therefore it is much more difficult for European politicians to go along with the unavoidable and accept the tough choices that must be made.

Agreement over necessary major spending cuts and potential defaults, which will undeniably bring hardship in the short- to- medium-term, is very hard to come by.

That’s because national interests vary widely …

For example, what’s in the best interest of Greece, Ireland, Portugal, or Spain is definitely not what Germany and the other relatively healthy countries want.

The dollar has problems, but the euro’s dilemma is a whole lot worse!

The likely outcome of this explosive mix, a euro crisis, is becoming increasingly probable. What’s more, the chances of the euro not surviving in the coming years climb with each passing day.

There is no easy way out of the European government debt trap. Sooner or later someone will opt for a severe hair cut. Then all hell will break loose with the euro.

Of course there is widespread unwillingness to accept the unavoidable in the U.S. as well. But compared to Europe, chances are much greater that a national agreement to make these hard choices will finally be accomplished.

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So to me it seems that there are fewer obstacles to overcome in the U.S. than there are in the EU.

Plus there is a lot more at stake for the U.S. than just another recession, even a very severe one.

You see …

The U.S. Has a Reserve
Currency to Lose

The U.S. has a huge privilege its economic and political elite are well aware of: The dollar is the world’s reserve currency. Losing this privilege would be a major long-term loss not only for the economic well being of the nation but also in terms of global dominance.

Ben Bernanke and his predecessor, Alan Greenspan, fell short of the responsibility that comes along with this privilege. Their easy money policy played — and still plays — a prominent role in digging the hole the U.S. is in. And Bernanke doesn’t seem to get it! But this, too, will change. Or there will be a change in Fed chairmanship.

To me it’s more like a question of time until the U.S. accepts the truth and starts doing the right thing. If not, the nation will face a crisis of major proportions.

It is not clear, though, when the time for a return to sound fiscal and monetary policy will come. That’s why I am a long-term dollar bear and a long-term euro bear. This of course means that I am a long-term gold bull.

The same fundamentals that strongly impede fiat currencies support the long-term gold bull market. Therefore I suggest investors consider taking a long-term strategic gold position in a gold exchange traded fund (ETF), like GLD, until a major policy change comes about.

But that doesn’t mean there aren’t any …

Opportunities in Paper Currencies

Currently, the dollar’s decline in terms of other currencies seems somewhat overdone. And technically the dollar looks appealing. As you can see in the chart below, the Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against a basket of currencies, is sitting at a major uptrend line.

At the same time sentiment indicators towards the dollar are as bearish as they get. In fact, they’re back to levels last seen at the important lows of October 2009 and November 2010.

Look at the following chart for the positioning of what the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) calls large speculators. Their cumulative position against the dollar is larger now than at the low of March 2008 and November 2009 — when the dollar was much lower.

So it’s very probable that the dollar will soon shoot to the upside — at least for a few months. If you’re inclined to get in on that action, now might be a good time to buy an ETF like PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP).

And for clear, concise instructions on how to use currency ETFs and options for the biggest possible payoff, you should check out my colleague, global currency expert Bryan Rich’s latest presentation.

Best wishes,

Claus

Claus Vogt is the editor of the German edition of Safe Money. He is the co-author of the German bestseller, Das Greenspan Dossier, where he predicted, well ahead of time, the sequence of events that have unfolded since, including the U.S. housing bust, the U.S. recession, the demise of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as well as the financial system crisis. Claus is currently the editor of Million-Dollar Contrarian Portfolio and has just completed his book The Global Debt Trap.

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