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The weakest links in the Eurozone chain are known as the PIIGS. This acronym represents five fiscally vulnerable members of the European monetary union: Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain. Already, two of the five members of this august club have capitulated to the dismal reality of their public finances and are receiving a Eurozone bailout, which comes from a fund consisting of borrowed money, borrowed that is by slightly less indebted Eurozone partners. Now, it would appear, Portugal is likely to be the third affiliate of the PIIGS to get a bailout. Portugal’s Prime Minister Jose Socrates has resigned after Lisbon’s parliament rejected his proposed austerity package. Socrates claimed that Portugal did not need financial aid, and could resolve its fiscal problems through its own austerity measures. That hope appears now to have been abandoned, and the expectation is that Lisbon will soon come crawling for a bailout, as the spread on its bonds gets ever wider.
Standard & Poor’s, S & P and Fitch have all severely downgraded their ratings on Portuguese government debt. In the meantime, a new government in Ireland is stating that it wants to negotiate a less severe austerity package than the one accepted by the previous Dublin government in exchange for a Eurozone and IMF bailout. As Portugal wobbles, Ireland confounds while continuing to bankrupt its citizens as the price for bailing out its reckless banks. In the meantime, the Greek economy is deflating, making it ever more likely that Athens will eventually default on its public debt. That still leaves the two biggest PIIGS without a bailout.
After Portugal, Spain is the next likely candidate for the bond vigilantes. The most significant problem with Spain is that it is so much larger an economy than the previous candidates for a bailout, it is unlikely that the Eurozone and its already indebted taxpayers could sustain the massive public borrowing required to rescue Madrid from its own fiscal follies.
The sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone is spinning out of control. And not far behind in entering this vortex of doom is the United Kingdom, which despite massive public spending cuts retains an unsustainable deficit as its economy contracts. And then there is the United States, with a national debt now virtually at parity with its annual GDP, and projected to have a record deficit in the current fiscal year, exceeding ten percent of its annual GDP.
In my book, “Global Economic Forecast 2010-2015: Recession Into Depression,” I predict that by 2012 a massive sovereign debt crisis in the major advanced economies will plunge the world into a global economic depression. All the recent developments regarding fiscal issues in the Eurozone, UK and U.S. do not give me any reason to alter my forecast.
Almost half the United States – the North Central region, the Midwest and the Northeast – faces a high risk of spring flooding over the next two weeks, government forecasters said on Thursday.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in its spring forecast that the stage was set for potential widespread, record flooding, particularly in the North Central United States for the third year in a row.
“With spring flooding already underway over portions of the U.S., NOAA forecasters are warning the worst is yet to come,” the forecasting agency said.
The top spring flood risks include the Red River of the North, which forms the state line between North Dakota and Minnesota, and the Milk River in eastern Montana, NOAA said.
Much of the flooding will be due to warmer temperatures that cause a large part of the snowpack in the North Central region to melt, NOAA said.
The warning follows one of the snowiest winters on record for the northern United States.
The upper Midwest crop belt had its second straight year of above-normal precipitation, with several areas receiving twice their normal snow and rain from December to February, Steve Hilberg, director of the Midwestern Regional Climate Center, told the Reuters Global Ags Forum on Thursday.
The main early danger from this flooding, and expected above average rainfall, is that soggy fields will delay farmers’ spring field work, government forecasters said.
Grain traders and farmers often read a delayed planting season as a drag on final crop yields in autumn.
The huge snowfall and heavy snowpack is also reminding them of the massive flooding that can hit the top U.S. grain producing regions — as with the Red River Valley in Spring 2009 and throughout the northern Midwest Corn Belt in 2008.
Hilberg said the Red River was under the greatest risk of a repeat.
“In the Red River Valley, it certainly is possible. A significant rain on top of the snow would cause a huge amount of runoff. There is currently about 4-6 inches of water in the snow,” he said. “Over the remainder of the Midwest, flooding along the lines of 2008 is probably not likely.”
Other areas facing flooding risks: the James and Big Sioux rivers in South Dakota, the Minnesota River, the upper Mississippi River basin from Minneapolis southward to St. Louis, and a portion of lower New York, eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey.
NOAA also said that the La Nina weather pattern, which generally brings dry U.S. weather conditions, peaked during the December-January period, but will remain moderately strong in April and then weaken by June.
California ‘monitoring situation closely’ amid dramatic escalation of disasterJapan’s nuclear crisis now appears worse than the Three Mile Island nuclear accident in 1979 – but not yet as bad as Chernobyl in 1986Japan PM tells people within 19 miles of plant to stay indoors as radiation reaches levels that could impact human heathRadioactive wind could reach Tokyo within hours – and radiation levels are already rising in cityNuclear Regulatory Commission admits it is ‘quite possible’ radiation could reach the U.S.‘Worst-case scenario’ could see 30,000ft winds sending nuclear cloud across Pacific – possibly hitting by Tuesday night
Fears that America could be hit by the nuclear fallout from the Japan earthquake have dramatically increased as workers prepared to abandon a reactor crippled by the earthquake and tsunami last night in the face of what is set to become the world’s second worst nuclear disaster – topped only by Chernobyl.
Damage at the number two reactor at the crippled Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power complex is worse than thought, the Japanese government admitted tonight, sparking fears for human health both in Japan and the U.S.
I wrote for Investigate Magazine from 2000-2005, then decided to invest my energy in the alternative media, when I became aware of the rise of fascism that was being concealed from the public under the guise of hoaxes, such as the "war on terror," by the mainstream media.
…While earlier posted fallout map showed innaccurate “RAD” level count, wind patterns remain intact… Radiation set to cross Pacific
…Nuclear Regulatory Commission spokesman David McIntyre: “Right now it’s quite possible that there could be some radiation floating over the United States“
…Radiation threatens California agricultural region (Map)
…Perspective on Radiation Levels:
Here’s a chart showing the range of radiation levels in milli sieverts (mSv). Currently up to 400mSv per hour are being recorded in the immediate vicinity of Fukushima. Remember, although these figures may suggest that the level of radiation being recorded at Fukushima is not extremely high, the danger is constant exposure over a period of time. For this reason, people within the 20km evacuation zone are at high risk of serious harm.
7,000-10,000mSv – Person dies from radiation poisoning. (Full body exposure). 1,000mSv – Nausea and vomiting (Full body exposure). 500mSv – Decrease of lymphocytes in peripheral blood (white blood cells that defend your body) (Full body exposure). 200mSv – No clinical conditions confirmed below this number 10mSv – 1 year’s worth of natural radiation (Brazil) 6.9mSv – CT scan 2.4mSv – 1 year’s worth of natural radiation (world average) 1mSv – Limit of one’s year’s exposure to non-natural radiation (excluding medical examinations) 0.6mSv – Stomach X-ray 0.2mSv – A return air trip from Tokyo to New York 0.05mSv – Chest X-ray (or the level of radiation expected around a nuclear power plant – in practice it is much lower than this)
…more updates to come as information becomes available
UPDATE: March 12, 2011 15:30 CST
…Japanese officials say nuclear disaster averted; but new reactor is now in danger
…Millions currently without power, gas
…Report from Mito, Japan:
In Mito, another town in the area, long lines formed outside a damaged supermarket as hundreds waited for medicine, water and other supplies. Supplies ran low as people stocked up, not knowing how long it would take for fresh goods to arrive.
“All the shops are closed, this is one of the few still open. So I came to buy and stock up on diapers, drinking water and food,” Kunio Iwatsuki, 68, told Reuters.
…Tour of grocery store in earthquake/Tsunami stricken area – Shelves just about empty:
…Grocery store in Tokyo – supplies of basic goods, non-perishables dwindling:
UPDATE: March 12, 2011 12:06 CST
…Status of nuclear plant is unconfirmed… Reports vary… some suggest plant has melted down… others suggest plant is intact
…Tens of thousands missing in Japan
…Thousands being evacuated in potential nuke fallout zone… 12 mile radius
…Explosion in building housing reactors (video)
…Chernobyl-like meltdown possible (video)
…Fuel rods may have melted
…West coast residents on alert in the event of a nuclear meltdown
…Wind may carry radiation across Pacific to West coast of North America…. 180 Hour Wind Forecast Model
…Unofficial fallout map (Note that this map has not yet been legitimately sourced, thus the estimated “Rad” levels are as of yet unconfirmed, though the wind patterns match those of the 180 hour forecast above):
***This Nuclear Fallout Map below has been identified as a hoax. As mentioned in our original posting, the source was not confirmed. We chose to publish this map to demonstrate the fallout pattern in the event high levels of radiation were released in Japan. ****
…As of yet, the estimates for radiation release levels in the event of meltdown as measured in Rads/Greys is unknown, therefore Rem/Microrem biologically effective doses cannot be measured accurately…
…radiation level outside the reactor became elevated to 1,015 microsievert—the equivalent of being exposed to the maximum allowable level for a full year in a single day. The level has since come down sharply.
…Survival / Alternative News forums go ballistic
…General Radiation Absorption ESTIMATES (source):
0-50 rads – No obvious short-term effects 80-120 rads – You have a 10% chance of vomiting and experiencing nausia for a few days 130 -170 rads – You have a 25% chance of vomiting and contracting other symptoms 180-220 rads – You have a 50% chance of vomiting and having other severe physical effects 270-330 rads – 20% chance of death in 6 weeks, or you will recover in a few months. 400-500 rads – 50% chance of death 550-750 rads – Nausia within a few hours ; no survivors Greater than 1000 rads – immediate incapacitation and death within a week or less.
…Japanese emergency officials are planning to distribute iodine to those in nuclear radiation zones:
Japanese authorities are making plans to distribute stable iodine, a treatment to prevent radiation poisoning, to residents near two damaged nuclear plants, the International Atomic Energy Agency says.
…FDA has historically recommended Potassium Iodide (KI) within 3 – 4 hours of radiation exposure
…Retail provider of KI
…Related SHTFplan articles:
The Effects of Nuclear Weapons
Survive Anything: Nuclear Attack
UPDATE: March 11, 2011 19:45 CST
…88,000 Reported Missing, Hundreds dead
UPDATE: March 11, 2011 17:00 CST
…California: 1 Confirmed Dead, 2 Swept out to sea as they watched incoming Tsunami
…Oregon: 4 Swept out to sea, rescued by Coast Guard
UPDATE: March 11, 2011 16:30 CST
…Reports that Fukushima nuclear reactor is at 2.1 times normal pressure
…Radiation reportedly at 1000 times normal and rising; no evacuations of plant or surrounding areas as of yet.
The following just released video from PBS Newshour documents just how powerful the Japanese Tsunami was. It completely demolishes an entire village in under a minute:
The Sakurajima Volcano on Southern Tip of Japan has begun erupting:
ORIGINAL STORY POSTED March 11, 2011 09:00 CST:
…An estimated 8.9 magnitude earthquake off the east coast of Japan sent Tsunamis across the Pacific, striking Japan with waves reportedly as high as 33 feet.
…Other Southeast nations have also been struck.
…Hawaii was inundated with a Tsunami earlier this morning.
…Oregon closes schools…California on alert…expect waves potentially as high as 5 feet around 11am EST
Gasoline prices are setting records across Europe and exceeding $4 a gallon in California as the rise in crude oil caused by the conflict in Libya punishes companies and consumers.
Households are cutting back on travel, cinema visits and groceries in the U.K., where prices jumped to 130.68 pence a liter ($8.06 a gallon) yesterday, according to research from the Automobile Association, Britain’s largest motoring organization. Prices set records in the Netherlands and Italy today. The current average U.S. gasoline price is near a two-year high at $3.81 a gallon, according to the AAA website.
The impact on consumer prices may push European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet to raise interest rates as soon as next month to discourage higher wages and head off the threat of an inflationary spiral.
“Rising fuel costs are negative because they push inflation up and slow the economy down,” said Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec Securities in London. “It is essentially energy costs that have resulted in ECB putting its finger on the interest rate trigger.”
In Italy, gasoline prices reached 1.544 euros a liter and diesel climbed to 1.438 euros a liter ($8.17 a gallon), according to a chart published by web energy daily Quotidiano Energia. Gasoline prices in the Netherlands reached a record 1.697 euro a liter from 1.692 euro in June 2008, according to Paul van Selms, head of UnitedConsumers, a lobby group for consumers in the Netherlands.
The average price for super-grade gasoline in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, was 1.55 euros per liter today, close to the 1.58 euro record from 2008.
Reflections on Inflation
I do not know if Trichet hikes short-term interest rates soon or not. It is conceivable it is the correct move.
However, the idea that something needs to be done in the face of a supply shock on top of overheating in China and peak oil constraints is ridiculous. Supply shocks are anything BUT inflationary.
If Europe or the US was on a rampage with credit expanding wildly it would be a different matter. However, credit expansion is not happening in the US or Europe.
Dumb things happen (in both directions) when central-planning jackasses view inflation in terms of prices rather than money supply and credit, then take (or fail to take) action because of prices.
For example, Greenspan ignited an enormous housing bubble by failure to consider reckless credit expansion. Instead, Greenspan foolishly focused on the CPI which suggested low inflation.
Such policies have central bankers forever-chasing their tails.
Where Should Rates Be?
Nothing above implies agreement with central bank rates set near zero.
The free market, not a bunch of bureaucrats, should set interest rates. None of the central bankers saw this crisis coming, so how the hell do they think they know what interest rates should be?
I don't know where they should be and they sure don't know either. At least one of us is smart enough to admit it.
I wrote for Investigate Magazine from 2000-2005, then decided to invest my energy in the alternative media, when I became aware of the rise of fascism that was being concealed from the public under the guise of hoaxes, such as the "war on terror," by the mainstream media. 
