Saturday, 23 April 2011

The "Real" Mega-Bears

 

April 22, 2011 weekend update

It's time again for the weekend update of our "Real" Mega-Bears, an inflation-adjusted overlay of three secular bear markets. It aligns the current S&P 500 from the top of the Tech Bubble in March 2000, the Dow in of 1929, and the Nikkei 225 from its 1989 bubble high.

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This chart is consistent with my preference for real (inflation-adjusted) analysis of long-term market behavior. The nominal all-time high in the index occurred in October 2007, but when we adjust for inflation, the "real" all-time high for the S&P 500 occurred in March 2000.

Here is a nominal version to help clarify the impact of inflation and deflation, which varied significantly across these three markets.

See also my alternate version, which charts the comparison from the 2007 nominal all-time high in the S&P 500.

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http://dshort.com/articles/2011/mega-bear-2000.html

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