Not Rocket Science

 

Economists and Wall Street "strategists" spend a great deal of time monitoring consumer expectations to try and get a read on future spending patterns. Presumably, such an approach would also make sense when it comes to the biggest purchase that most Americans might make in their lifetimes?

Under the circumstances, when we have reports like this:

"Most Americans Think Housing Recovery Won't Happen Until 2014" (Richmond Times-Dispatch)

Looking for light at the end of the housing tunnel four years after the bubble burst?

It is dim, national housing experts said Wednesday in a conference call about the results of a consumer survey on American attitudes on foreclosures.

"I would love to say we have taken a few steps forward, but the reality is we are still taking steps back," said Pete Flint, chief executive officer of Trulia, an online real estate resource. "I expect the rest of 2011 to continue to be volatile. It will be another 18 months before we see signs of price stability."

Most Americans agree, he said.

More than half of U.S. adults think the recovery will not happen until 2014 or later, according to a study released Wednesday by Trulia and RealtyTrac, an online resource for foreclosures.

The study looked at how Americans feel about buying foreclosed homes. People also were asked when they think the housing market will recover and whether the government is doing enough to help homeowners.

In a similar study conducted six months ago, 42 percent of American adults thought the market would turn around by 2012, but only 23 percent think that will happen now. --

why are so-called experts constantly "surprised" by data that indicates conditions remain bad, or by stories like this:

"Sustained Recovery in Housing Remains Elusive: Fannie Mae" (HousingWire)

A sustained recovery in the housing sector remains elusive as distressed home sales continue to dominant a large part of the sector's activity, Fannie Mae said in its May 2011 Economic Outlook report.

Single-family homebuilding activity was weak in the first quarter, while housing starts and new home sales remained flat at already depressed levels, suggesting a state of optimism in the housing sector of the economy is difficult to maintain.

The economy slowed dramatically in the first quarter, dipping to a growth rate of 1.8% from 3.1% in the final quarter of 2010. Despite that drop, Fannie Mae's long-term economic forecasts predict more than 3% growth in the next few years.

Fannie's Chief Economist Doug Duncan said despite low prices, low interest rates and improving job numbers, consumer attitudes have yet to rebound in a way that turns the tide.

"In spite of the positives surrounding the housing market, we see that consumers are still hesitant to take on a large financial obligation. Nevertheless, we do forecast some improvement in home sales over the course of 2011 compared to 2010," Duncan said.

Contrary to what some would have you believe, you don't need to be a rocket scientist to get some kind of decent handle on the road ahead.

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/financialarmageddon/~3/hLOAvKkz6PU/not-rocket-science.html