The "R" Word

 

Although I've repeatedly questioned the notion that we've had a "recovery" in any genuine sense of the word, it looks like whatever we did have as a result of all the financial steroids that were injected into the U.S. economy since the financial crisis began is withering fast.

To wit, along with today's "unexpectedly" bad data from the Richmond Federal Reserve (ably discussed here by The Market Ticker), we've also had similarly downbeat reports from their New York, Philadelphia, and Chicago counterparts (the Dallas survey is due out next week). In fact, three of the regional Fed indexes are at or near one-year lows.

Given how well one popular measure of economic activity, the ISM manufacturing index, has tracked these data series over time, odds are that the "R" word more and more people will be focusing on next won't be "recovery" -- it'll be "recession."

(Data: Bloomberg)

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