Showing posts with label Japanese. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Japanese. Show all posts

Sunday, 3 April 2011

TaKaSHi UeSuGi: AN ANGRY JaPaNeSe JouRNaLiST

FROM TIME OUT TOKYO

In the immediate aftermath of the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, the Japanese media stayed remarkably calm. While overseas news outlets fretted about nuclear meltdown and terrified expats stranded in a 'City of Ghosts', their Japanese counterparts generally hewed closer to the official line: stay calm, go about your business as usual. And, yes, you can still drink the tap water.

But that was only part of the picture. While the mainstream media presented a reasonably united front, a group of freelance and internet journalists were openly dissatisfied with the explanations being given at Tokyo Electric Power Co.'s seemingly endless stream of press conferences. Why wasn't the company mentioning levels of plutonium around the stricken Fukushima Daiichi power plant? What had happened to TEPCO's president, Masataka Shimizu – last seen on March 13?

One of the most influential members of this group of dissenters is Takashi Uesugi, a former New York Times journalist and, in an earlier incarnation, aide to Liberal Democratic Party bigwig Kunio Hatoyama. The author of books including The Collapse of Journalism, Uesugi is a vociferous critic of Japan's 'Kisha Club' system – a network of exclusive press clubs that, he says, nurtures excessively close relationships between reporters and the organisations they are supposed to cover.

Gadfly to some, hero to others, Uesugi is a much-sought commentator. He makes weekly appearances on Tokyo FM and Asahi Newstar, and is a regular contributor to the Diamond Weekly business website, along with various weekly tabloids. However, he's most prolific on his own website and via Twitter, where he commands a following of 177,000 and counting. One place place he won't be appearing any more is TBS Radio, who booted Uesugi from his regular weekly guest slot this month (more on that later).

Time Out caught up with Uesugi last Monday, during a brief lull between press conferences at the TEPCO head office in Shimbashi. We'd gone expecting to have a nice chat about tweets and microsieverts, but smalltalk apparently wasn't an option. What followed was a eye-opening, if occasionally paranoid tirade against TEPCO, the government and the mass media, delivered in rapid-fire Japanese.

Here is the link to the full interview: Takashi Uesugi

I have sent a communication to Mr. Uesugi offering to republish on Zero Hedge any reports that he would like to see published outside of Japan.

Remember who told you they were lying from the very beginning ;-)

WB7


View the original article here

TaKaSHi UeSuGi: AN ANGRY JaPaNeSe JouRNaLiST

FROM TIME OUT TOKYO

In the immediate aftermath of the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, the Japanese media stayed remarkably calm. While overseas news outlets fretted about nuclear meltdown and terrified expats stranded in a 'City of Ghosts', their Japanese counterparts generally hewed closer to the official line: stay calm, go about your business as usual. And, yes, you can still drink the tap water.

But that was only part of the picture. While the mainstream media presented a reasonably united front, a group of freelance and internet journalists were openly dissatisfied with the explanations being given at Tokyo Electric Power Co.'s seemingly endless stream of press conferences. Why wasn't the company mentioning levels of plutonium around the stricken Fukushima Daiichi power plant? What had happened to TEPCO's president, Masataka Shimizu – last seen on March 13?

One of the most influential members of this group of dissenters is Takashi Uesugi, a former New York Times journalist and, in an earlier incarnation, aide to Liberal Democratic Party bigwig Kunio Hatoyama. The author of books including The Collapse of Journalism, Uesugi is a vociferous critic of Japan's 'Kisha Club' system – a network of exclusive press clubs that, he says, nurtures excessively close relationships between reporters and the organisations they are supposed to cover.

Gadfly to some, hero to others, Uesugi is a much-sought commentator. He makes weekly appearances on Tokyo FM and Asahi Newstar, and is a regular contributor to the Diamond Weekly business website, along with various weekly tabloids. However, he's most prolific on his own website and via Twitter, where he commands a following of 177,000 and counting. One place place he won't be appearing any more is TBS Radio, who booted Uesugi from his regular weekly guest slot this month (more on that later).

Time Out caught up with Uesugi last Monday, during a brief lull between press conferences at the TEPCO head office in Shimbashi. We'd gone expecting to have a nice chat about tweets and microsieverts, but smalltalk apparently wasn't an option. What followed was a eye-opening, if occasionally paranoid tirade against TEPCO, the government and the mass media, delivered in rapid-fire Japanese.

Here is the link to the full interview: Takashi Uesugi

I have sent a communication to Mr. Uesugi offering to republish on Zero Hedge any reports that he would like to see published outside of Japan.

Remember who told you they were lying from the very beginning ;-)

WB7


View the original article here

Saturday, 2 April 2011

Japanese officials consider cell transplants for nuclear workers

By Ian Sample

Frozen blood stem cells could save workers’ lives if they become ill after exposure to high levels of radiation

Fukushima workers

Workers at Japan’s Fukushima nuclear plant are taken to hospital under a blue sheet after they were exposed to high levels of radiation. Photograph: Jiji Press/AFP/Getty Images

Japanese authorities are considering plans to collect and freeze cells from engineers and water cannon operators at the Fukushima nuclear power plant in case they are exposed to dangerous levels of radiation.

The proposal has been drawn up as a precautionary measure that could potentially save the lives of workers if they receive high doses of radiation while battling to bring the damaged nuclear reactors under control.

High levels of radiation can cause serious illness and death from bone marrow failure, but the condition can be treated if patients are seen quickly enough and given transplants of blood stem cells collected before they are exposed.

The procedure requires workers to take a drug for several days that causes their bone marrow to release stem cells into the blood. They are then hooked up to a machine through which their blood is passed and filtered to extract the stem cells.

[more at guardian.co.uk...]

Bill Bard says:

Just so you know, it’ll be alright, nothing to worry about!!!

By Danielle Demetriou in Tokyo

Workers who have been fighting to bring the reactors under control at Japan’s strick nuclear plant expect to die from radiation sickness, according to the mother of one of the men.

The so-called Fukushima 50, the group of around 300 technicians, soldiers and firemen who work in shifts of 50, have been exposed repeatedly to dangerously high radioactive levels as they attempt to avert a nuclear disaster.

The mother of one of the men has admitted that the group have discussed their situation and have accepted that death is a strong possibility.

“My son and his colleagues have discussed it at length and they have committed themselves to die if necessary in the long-term.”

Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, said the world needed international safety standards on nuclear power by the end of the year as fears surrounding the extent of radiation leaks in Japan continued to grow.

Mr Sarkozy, on the first trip by a foreign leader to Japan since the devastating earthquake and tsunami on March 11, said he would call a meeting of the G20's nuclear power watchdogs to discuss safety regulations. “We must address this anomaly that there are no international safety norms for nuclear matters … We need international safety standards before the end of the year.”

[more at telegraph.co.uk...]

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View the original article here

Japanese officials consider cell transplants for nuclear workers

By Ian Sample

Frozen blood stem cells could save workers’ lives if they become ill after exposure to high levels of radiation

Fukushima workers

Workers at Japan’s Fukushima nuclear plant are taken to hospital under a blue sheet after they were exposed to high levels of radiation. Photograph: Jiji Press/AFP/Getty Images

Japanese authorities are considering plans to collect and freeze cells from engineers and water cannon operators at the Fukushima nuclear power plant in case they are exposed to dangerous levels of radiation.

The proposal has been drawn up as a precautionary measure that could potentially save the lives of workers if they receive high doses of radiation while battling to bring the damaged nuclear reactors under control.

High levels of radiation can cause serious illness and death from bone marrow failure, but the condition can be treated if patients are seen quickly enough and given transplants of blood stem cells collected before they are exposed.

The procedure requires workers to take a drug for several days that causes their bone marrow to release stem cells into the blood. They are then hooked up to a machine through which their blood is passed and filtered to extract the stem cells.

[more at guardian.co.uk...]

Bill Bard says:

Just so you know, it’ll be alright, nothing to worry about!!!

By Danielle Demetriou in Tokyo

Workers who have been fighting to bring the reactors under control at Japan’s strick nuclear plant expect to die from radiation sickness, according to the mother of one of the men.

The so-called Fukushima 50, the group of around 300 technicians, soldiers and firemen who work in shifts of 50, have been exposed repeatedly to dangerously high radioactive levels as they attempt to avert a nuclear disaster.

The mother of one of the men has admitted that the group have discussed their situation and have accepted that death is a strong possibility.

“My son and his colleagues have discussed it at length and they have committed themselves to die if necessary in the long-term.”

Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, said the world needed international safety standards on nuclear power by the end of the year as fears surrounding the extent of radiation leaks in Japan continued to grow.

Mr Sarkozy, on the first trip by a foreign leader to Japan since the devastating earthquake and tsunami on March 11, said he would call a meeting of the G20's nuclear power watchdogs to discuss safety regulations. “We must address this anomaly that there are no international safety norms for nuclear matters … We need international safety standards before the end of the year.”

[more at telegraph.co.uk...]

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View the original article here

Wednesday, 30 March 2011

Could a Japanese U.S. Debt Selloff Trigger a Dollar Meltdown?

With the disaster in Japan being far from over, the question of how Japan will finance their reconstruction efforts has, for the most part, stayed out of focus. According to reports, the damage is estimated in excess of $300 billion, nearly four times higher than hurricane Katrina. This number will likely rise the longer the nuclear crisis remains unresolved. Karl Denninger of Market Ticker says there are several problems facing the Japanese:

(Video interview of Denninger on Fox Business follows excerpts and commentary)

The Tsunami did a tremendous amount of damage to the landscape and once they get that cleaned up they’re going to have to rebuild. And then you’ve got about 8 gigawatts of electrical generation that’s been taken offline and there’s no hope of restoring that anytime in the near future.

So, the capital flows that have gone into Japan from exports are going to turn into capital flows going the other direction because Japan has to buy the materials that it needs in order to rebuild its society.

The main issue in terms of rebuilding is one of funding. While the US may send foreign aid to help get Japan back on its feet, such measures are not very popular due to our already troubled debt levels and spending problems, so any support we provide will be limited. Japan can’t depend on international aid of any significance either, because, well, no one else gives like the US. Private donations may help people on the ground with food, clothing and shelter, but those are a drop in the bucket compared to what is necessary.

Considering that Japan is the third largest economy in the world, they will be left to come up with the money themselves.

Karl Denninger says that how Japan will come up with the money is “an open question.”

How they’re going to manage to do that without either printing more money, which at some point will cause problems over there, or selling some of their Treasuries is an open question.

Japan owns about 20% of all US debt. It’s safe to say that Japan’s regular purchases of US Treasuries are about to come to a screeching halt, or at least, be reduced significantly. This fact alone means someone is going to need to step in to buy up that excess debt. We can all guess, fairly accurately, who will end up with those new issues.

But even if the Federal Reserve were to buy up the new debt that Japan won’t, there is the question of how Japan is going to fund the $300 billion plus in recovery efforts. And given that there is no end in sight, we may be talking about double that amount – no one really knows.

So, the question is, will Japan need to sell off some of its US debt in order to pay for recovery and reconstruction efforts? And if so, could that be the black swan that could trigger the domino effect that will lead to a US debt sell off, and ultimately, a currency collapse? Until a month ago this was nowhere on the radar. Now, we have every reason to be concerned about this possible black swan event. Karl Denninger weighs in:

The obvious thing to do is to sell some of those holdings. The danger for the United States is not tomorrow, it’s a few months out. Right now, they’re still trying to clean up the mess. But once they actually start actively rebuilding they’re going to have to have a way to finance this.

And that’s where the danger comes from, because if Japan was to start unloading Treasuries, it would be reasonable to assume that the Chinese, who hold an even larger amount, would look at that activity and say ‘well, if we don’t sell now we lose even more. Maybe we want to be selling some ourselves.’ And, that puts quite an interesting squeeze into our budget picture for the United States.

In January, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner confirmed that we are literally on the brink of a catastrophic debt collapse resulting from a need for money and raising of our debt ceiling. So, it is clear that we’re already in serious trouble as it is. If Japan were to stop buying our treasuries and actually start selling their existing US debt holdings, it could potentially accelerate the already destructive path on which we find ourselves.

As we’ve suggested previously, all it will take is for buyers and holders of US debt to say ‘no more’ and the jig is up. Mainly, we’re talking about China, and if they pull the plug on all of the credit they have thus far extended, then we could literally be talking ‘lights out’.

This may be a low probability event, but so was an earthquake driven Tsunami wiping out the generators that powered the fuel rod cooling stations in Fukuskima.

Watch Karl Denninger and Neil Cavuto:

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Sunday, 27 March 2011

When the sea comes in - new footage of Japanese tsunami

My Heart is full of Mercy.

Soon, I come to seek you with My Holy Angels who are ready to help you, and you will be placed in this shelter that I have prepared for you.

The Hour will not be announced, but I will call you in a way that you do not question in doubt.

With this dictation, Prepare yourself...

JESUS/JNSR February 26, 2011


View the original article here

Friday, 25 March 2011

Think The Japanese Disaster Is Just What The Keynesian Doctor Ordered? Mo Says No

That would be Mohamed El-Erian from Pimco, by the way, who first among the lunatic fringe (here's looking at you Goldman and Kudlow), admits that contrary to what all the Koolaid guzzlers claim, the Japanese quake may not be what the Keynesian doctor ordered after all. We urge readers to read this piece as a counterpoint to Goldman's stern defense that the Japanese quake is but a scratch, and one that will lead to world peace, prosperity and a doubling (give or take) of global GDP. In fact, El-Erian tells all the pundits who in addition to permabulls are also suddenly nuclear physicists and geologists, to shut the hell up, "as tempting as they may be, analytical shortcuts are best avoided at this early stage. It will take time and thorough analysis to specify the true consequences of Japan’s triple calamity, including the longer-term impact on its economy and that of the rest of the world. The Japanese have shown admirable courage in the face of unthinkable tragedy. I have no doubt that a successful reconstruction program will lead their country to recovery. In the meantime, however, the urgency of restoring a sense of normalcy and hope to a dramatically wounded society warrants thoughtful and deep analyses." On this matter, we couldn't agree more.

From PIMCO:

Understanding Japan’s Disasters, by Mohamed El-Erian

Japan’s reconstruction challenge will likely be more difficult than after the Kobe earthquake.Negative wealth and income effects this time around will be more severe, and the recovery process will probably take longer and be more complex.Japan's disasters will add to the global economy’s headwinds.

As we all struggle to comprehend the economic and financial impact of Japan’s calamity, it is tempting to seek historical analogies for guidance. Indeed, many have been quick to cite the aftermath of the terrible 1995 Kobe earthquake. But, while that example provides some insights, it is too limited to understand what lies ahead for Japan, and excessive reliance on it could undermine appropriate policy responses, both in Japan and abroad.

First, let us consider the similarities between Japan’s current tragedy and that of 1995. Both involved terrible earthquakes that resulted in tremendous human suffering and large-scale physical damage. Both required the Japanese government to display considerable agility in its rescue efforts. Both triggered multiple offers of help from friends and allies around the world. In both cases, wealth destruction was accompanied by disruptions to daily economic life.

There are also important forward-looking similarities. As with the aftermath of Kobe, the current focus on rescuing survivors will be followed by a huge reconstruction program. Massive budgetary allocations will be made (2% of GDP in the case of Kobe). Affected households will receive financial assistance to help them restore some normalcy to their lives. Roads, housing, and much other infrastructure will be repaired and upgraded.

These similarities have led several economists to provide early predictions of the national and global economic consequences, including a sharp V-like recovery in Japan’s growth rate in 2011, as the initial downturn is followed by a surge in economic activity, implying a rapid recovery in Japan’s tax base and level of GDP. Such predictions counsel caution against over-reaction by policymakers outside Japan. Rather than immediately incorporating Japanese developments into their thinking, policymakers should treat the effects on the global economy as “transitory” – that is, temporary and reversible – and thus “look through” them in designing their responses.

But there is a risk that this approach could understate the Japanese disaster’s domestic and international consequences. As such, it could contribute to insufficient responses in Japan itself – from the government to individual companies and households – as well as in other countries. Indeed, such a mal-diagnosis could delay what I believe will be an eventual solid recovery in Japan.

Five factors suggest that Japan faces a uniquely difficult and uncertain set of challenges. First, the economic damage from Japan’s three calamities (a horrifying earthquake, a devastating tsunami, and a nuclear crisis) may well be double that of Kobe. And, unlike Kobe, these calamities did affect Tokyo – indirectly, fortunately – where some 40% of Japan’s industrial production is located.

Second, Japan’s public finances are weaker than in 1995, and demographic factors are less favorable. Domestic public debt today stands at roughly 205% of GDP, compared to around 85% in 1995. The country’s sovereign rating is AA-, not AAA, as it was 16 years ago. This erodes the flexibility and ultimate effectiveness of fiscal responses.

Third, benchmark interest rates are already near zero, and have been for a while. This undermines the potency of monetary policy notwithstanding bold and imaginative efforts by the Bank of Japan to inject liquidity into the economy.

Fourth, the addition of destabilizing nuclear uncertainty to the terrible impact of the natural disasters amplifies the reconstruction challenges. Given the damage and dangers, it will take time for Japan to restore fully its power-generation capabilities, affecting the potential GDP growth rate. Food safety is also a concern, as is the economic impact of nuclear uncertainties on the Japanese psyche.

Finally, Japan’s external environment today is more challenging. During the post-Kobe reconstruction period, world demand was buoyant and global productivity surged, owing to China’s gathering boom, America’s information-technology and communications revolution, and political and economic convergence in Europe.

Today, aggregate demand in advanced economies is still recovering from the global financial crisis, while systemically important emerging economies like Brazil and China are tapping their policy brakes in order to counter economic overheating. Meanwhile, on the supply side, countries are dealing with high and volatile commodity prices, including an oil-price spike as a result of the Middle East uprisings.

If this analysis proves correct, it implies that Japan’s reconstruction challenge will be more difficult than after the Kobe earthquake. Negative wealth and income effects this time around will be more severe, and the recovery process will probably take longer and be more complex.

At the national level, this calls urgently for a degree of unity and decisiveness that has been absent from Japanese politics for years. Without it, the authorities will find it difficult to communicate and implement a medium-term economic vision that puts rapid sustained growth, and not just reconstruction, at the core of the policy response.

Japan's disasters will add to the global economy’s headwinds – be they the impact of the initial fall in consumption in the world’s third-largest economy, or disruptions to global supply chains (particularly in technology and autos). And Japan’s nuclear crisis will mean greater uncertainty about nuclear power in other countries.

There is also a financial angle, the importance of which depends on the mix of new government borrowing, debt monetization, and repatriation of Japanese savings that is used to fund Japan's reconstruction program. The greater the repatriation component, the larger the negative impact on some financial markets.

So, as tempting as they may be, analytical shortcuts are best avoided at this early stage. It will take time and thorough analysis to specify the true consequences of Japan’s triple calamity, including the longer-term impact on its economy and that of the rest of the world.

The Japanese have shown admirable courage in the face of unthinkable tragedy. I have no doubt that a successful reconstruction program will lead their country to recovery. In the meantime, however, the urgency of restoring a sense of normalcy and hope to a dramatically wounded society warrants thoughtful and deep analyses.

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Thursday, 24 March 2011

As Buffett Talks Down Japanese Devastation, His Munich Re Announces Massive Loss, Forecast Miss Due To Earthquake

If one was merely listening to the Octogenarian of Omaha this morning on CNBC, one could easily have left the latest cheerleading attempt by the man who has made both an art and a science of frontrunning the government's rescues of the most incompetent and insolvent organizations in America (and later writing oped's both thanking and criticizing Uncle Sam for doing everything possible to transfer as much taxpayer money into Warren's right pocket just before the hypocrisy medication kicks in) to hypnotize the lemmings into believing all is fine in Japan. If indeed that would be the case, one may therefore be excused for not noting the killer irony of one Munich RE coming out just a few short hours later, saying it expects to not only see $2 billion in losses due the events in Japan, but miss its 2011 profit target by a mile, considering the firm had a $3.4 billion profit target. The kicker, of course, is that Munich Re is owned more than 10% by the same demented individual noted above, who has now gone full retard in his attempts to sucker as many sheep into the slaughter just so he can recover, through secondary and tertiary channels, some of his imminent losses in Japanese insurers and reinsurers. And considering that the Nikkei just reported total earthquake-related losses may be up to ¥25 trillion, or roughly ¥20 trillion more than covered by the Japanese Reinsurance Fund, Buffett better be right...Or if not, he better be petitioning the Japanese government to bend over just like America did 3 years ago, and once again bail out his "genius investor" derriere. 

From Property and Casualty:

Due to the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, Munich Re says it will not reach its profit target for 2011 after reporting an expected loss of more $2 billion from the event.

The Munich, Germany-based company says its estimated loss of around €1.5 billion (U.S. $2.1 billion at the current exchange rate) is after retrocession and before tax.

The company’s 2011 profit target had been around €2.4 billion ($3.4 billion).

Munich Re says its initial loss estimate is based solely on modeling. Owing to the extent of the destruction, further possible aftershocks and difficult cleanup operations, it will be many weeks before the losses are assessed and all the claims notifications from Japanese primary insurers have come in, says the company.

And here is why the final "one time" catastrophic loss for Munich Re may mean the company has to say goodbye to its entire projected profitability this year, not to mention further "one time" rescue funding from the likes of the German, US and Japanese governments... or else [insert token End of the World scenario here]:

The government estimates direct damage from the March 11 earthquake and tsunami at 15-25 trillion yen, significantly more than the roughly 10 trillion yen for the Great Hanshin Earthquake of 1995.

Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Kaoru Yosano is expected to present the projection to relevant ministers on Wednesday in the monthly economic report. The damage estimate, the first to be released by the government, will serve as a basis for compiling supplementary budgets and drawing up reconstruction plans.

A JX Energy petrochemical complex in Chiba Prefecture suffered extensive fire damage.

The estimate covers damage to such infrastructure as roads and ports as well as destruction of homes, factories and other buildings. The figure does not include economic losses resulting from the problems at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant and rolling blackouts.

A large area, from northeastern Japan to the Tokyo region, suffered major damage from this month's quake and tsunami. Private-sector research institutions have estimated damage from the disaster at 10-20 trillion yen.

Of course, none of this should ever be mentioned by the fawning admirers of the octogenarian at CNBC. After all, considering the vesting schedule of their shares, it very well may have occurred to some that the last thing they want to do is cross the kindly grandfather who just may put up a bid for Comcast when all is said and done, now that the Berkshire empire needs a media outlet from whence to issue its propaganda spin: an event that will result in immediate cash vesting of each and every share, and instant liberation from the clutches of the middle class for such immense reporting talents as Becky Quick et al.

Your rating: None Average: 5 (18 votes)

View the original article here

As Buffett Talks Down Japanese Devastation, His Munich Re Announces Massive Loss, Forecast Miss Due To Earthquake

If one was merely listening to the Octogenarian of Omaha this morning on CNBC, one could easily have left the latest cheerleading attempt by the man who has made both an art and a science of frontrunning the government's rescues of the most incompetent and insolvent organizations in America (and later writing oped's both thanking and criticizing Uncle Sam for doing everything possible to transfer as much taxpayer money into Warren's right pocket just before the hypocrisy medication kicks in) to hypnotize the lemmings into believing all is fine in Japan. If indeed that would be the case, one may therefore be excused for not noting the killer irony of one Munich RE coming out just a few short hours later, saying it expects to not only see $2 billion in losses due the events in Japan, but miss its 2011 profit target by a mile, considering the firm had a $3.4 billion profit target. The kicker, of course, is that Munich Re is owned more than 10% by the same demented individual noted above, who has now gone full retard in his attempts to sucker as many sheep into the slaughter just so he can recover, through secondary and tertiary channels, some of his imminent losses in Japanese insurers and reinsurers. And considering that the Nikkei just reported total earthquake-related losses may be up to ¥25 trillion, or roughly ¥20 trillion more than covered by the Japanese Reinsurance Fund, Buffett better be right...Or if not, he better be petitioning the Japanese government to bend over just like America did 3 years ago, and once again bail out his "genius investor" derriere. 

From Property and Casualty:

Due to the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, Munich Re says it will not reach its profit target for 2011 after reporting an expected loss of more $2 billion from the event.

The Munich, Germany-based company says its estimated loss of around €1.5 billion (U.S. $2.1 billion at the current exchange rate) is after retrocession and before tax.

The company’s 2011 profit target had been around €2.4 billion ($3.4 billion).

Munich Re says its initial loss estimate is based solely on modeling. Owing to the extent of the destruction, further possible aftershocks and difficult cleanup operations, it will be many weeks before the losses are assessed and all the claims notifications from Japanese primary insurers have come in, says the company.

And here is why the final "one time" catastrophic loss for Munich Re may mean the company has to say goodbye to its entire projected profitability this year, not to mention further "one time" rescue funding from the likes of the German, US and Japanese governments... or else [insert token End of the World scenario here]:

The government estimates direct damage from the March 11 earthquake and tsunami at 15-25 trillion yen, significantly more than the roughly 10 trillion yen for the Great Hanshin Earthquake of 1995.

Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Kaoru Yosano is expected to present the projection to relevant ministers on Wednesday in the monthly economic report. The damage estimate, the first to be released by the government, will serve as a basis for compiling supplementary budgets and drawing up reconstruction plans.

A JX Energy petrochemical complex in Chiba Prefecture suffered extensive fire damage.

The estimate covers damage to such infrastructure as roads and ports as well as destruction of homes, factories and other buildings. The figure does not include economic losses resulting from the problems at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant and rolling blackouts.

A large area, from northeastern Japan to the Tokyo region, suffered major damage from this month's quake and tsunami. Private-sector research institutions have estimated damage from the disaster at 10-20 trillion yen.

Of course, none of this should ever be mentioned by the fawning admirers of the octogenarian at CNBC. After all, considering the vesting schedule of their shares, it very well may have occurred to some that the last thing they want to do is cross the kindly grandfather who just may put up a bid for Comcast when all is said and done, now that the Berkshire empire needs a media outlet from whence to issue its propaganda spin: an event that will result in immediate cash vesting of each and every share, and instant liberation from the clutches of the middle class for such immense reporting talents as Becky Quick et al.

Your rating: None Average: 5 (18 votes)

View the original article here

Tuesday, 22 March 2011

Will the Japanese Yen See a Repeat of 1995?

leadimage

03/21/11 St. Louis, Missouri – As Chris told you in Friday’s essay “G-7 Coordinates Intervention to Push the Yen Lower”, the big story was the G7 stepping into the currency market and selling yen on a coordinated basis. As you would expect, it was the worst performing currency of the day by ending up with a loss of about 2.25%. The yen (JPY) fell all the way to 81.99 on Friday morning, but barely climbed back into the 80 handle by the time I left for the weekend on Friday afternoon. All of the excitement in the currency market really took place in the Asian and European trading sessions, so it was actually a fairly quiet day for US traders. In fact, most currencies ended the day higher in US trading, including the yen.

I saw a report from UBS that basically told investors they should forget about yen strength, which certainly backs Chris’s call last week to consider exiting the yen while it’s still relatively high. I’ve had several conversations with investors as to the likelihood that we see a repeat performance after Japan’s 1995 quake when the currency ran up about 20%. I agree with Chris in that it doesn’t seem likely. The world is a much different place now and there are several factors working against a significant appreciation.

First of all, the interest rate environment is different. Back then, we had both the US and Germany cutting interest rates, so the rate differential was narrowing; as opposed to the current situation where interest rates globally are on the rise. In other words, the current interest rate environment was already working against the yen before the quake. Second, one of the few bright spots for Japan was its export strength. It has posted a current account surplus since 1986, so erosion to its trade surplus from increased demand on imports and limitations of some exports would pose a real threat.

We also have a situation where Japan could become the first G7 country to return back into recession after fourth quarter GDP contracted 0.3% as government stimulus was being removed from the economy. Limited economic growth and falling consumer prices before the quake weren’t exactly positive points either. While continued repatriation of funds back into Japan could keep the yen exchange rate sticky for a while, the continued thought of intervention and weaker economic numbers should eventually win out.

Moving west into the United States, its going to be a busy week in the economic data department. Today, we have the existing home sales figures from February. The expected result from a majority of the economists is a drop of 4.7% to an annual pace of 5.11 million. We saw sales of previously owned homes rise to an eight-month high in January, but foreclosures and short sales rising to a 12-month high was the catalyst behind that move. In fact, the foreclosure inventory rose to a record 2.2 million in January, with another 4.7 million households not current on their mortgages.

It’s really a foreclosure and distressed-property driven market, as investors are hand picking real estate that is being thrown in a fire sale by individuals needing to sell, or banks just wanting to unload repossessed inventory. Either way, it’s not exactly a sign of a market returning back to health. While we do have some important numbers to look at this week, such as durable goods and personal consumption, I think most investors are waiting for the final revision of fourth quarter GDP on Friday.

As it sits right now, the expectations call for an expansion of 3% instead of the current revised figure of 2.8%. The original projection for fourth quarter GDP was 3.3%, so it looks like we’ll remain lower than the estimation, but higher than the third quarter number of 2.6%.

As Chris mentioned on Friday, the Swedish krona (SEK) was the best performing currency as it ended the day up by over 2%. There was basically a 3-way tie for second place as New Zealand, (NZD) Australia (AUD), and Norway (NOK) all posted gains of just under 2%. Higher inflation is one of the factors driving rates higher in Sweden, but house prices are also applying some pressure.

Home prices rose 3% in the three-month period through February compared to the same time last year. Prices have risen on an annual basis for 22 consecutive months and caused the central bank to signal that this credit-driven growth may prompt it to pick up the pace of rate hikes as it also deals with the EU’s quickest economic rebound. Chris left me a note to share with you as a few readers had a question regarding the repo rate he had discussed on Friday, so here’s what he had to say:

A repo rate is the discount rate at which a government will agree to repurchase government securities from commercial banks. So these commercial banks can swap their securities at the central bank for cash, increasing liquidity in the markets. If the central bank wants to create more money in the system, they lower the repo rate (sometimes called the discount rate) and more banks bring their securities to the government to swap to cash.

If the government wants to pull in liquidity, it raises the repo rate making it more expensive for banks to swap their treasuries for cash. Repo rates act the same way as the fed funds rate, and is just another tool the central bank can use to adjust liquidity in the markets.

Hopefully that helps to answer some questions.

Both the Australian and New Zealand dollars gained as equities and commodities rose, prompting investors to assume more risk. The winds behind the sails of the Norwegian krone were comments from the central bank that they were less concerned about the krone’s appreciation when evaluating economic policy. In other words, they are giving themselves more scope to raise rates in an attempt to keep housing under control. The central bank, Norges Bank, said the krone is strong but they aren’t especially worried and also said there is a 50% chance of a rate hike in May or June.

Norges Bank has maintained verbiage for a while now that rates were not moving any higher until, at the earliest, mid-year so this change in sentiment fueled more buyers of the krone. It seems that the ECB’s willingness to raise rates in the near term may have been enough to push Norway over to the hawkish side of the fence. Taking into account that a majority of Norwegian exports are petroleum, it looks increasingly likely the economy can withstand higher exchange rates. The fact that interest rates weren’t expected to move as high as previously expected has kept a lid on the krone over the past year, but now that it has been loosened a bit, hopefully it will play some catch up.

Moving over to the euro (EUR), we saw the currency trade well into the 1.41 handle and finished the day up 1%. It seems as though Trichet re-affirmed his plan to raise rates, saying he doesn’t want to change his message on the need to contain inflation. When asked if policymakers still see an imminent rate increase, he said that he had nothing to add nor to withdraw in regard to ECB statements that it may need to raise interest rates in April.

Bets have been increasing that the ECB will push a rate hike out longer as a result of the Japanese earthquake and related events, as Trichet said that the potential impact of the earthquake and aftermath is something we will be thinking deeply about in the coming days. That still doesn’t change policymakers’ concerns over the second round inflation effects, which is where companies increase prices and boost wages to compensate for higher costs that just perpetuates faster inflation. In any instance, euro area inflation rose well above the 2% target to 2.4% last month.

As I came in this morning, most of the currencies are trading higher today except for the yen and Swiss franc (CHF). It seems as though the intervention efforts by the G7 are having the desired effect, at least thus far, as the yen hasn’t seen any sustained appreciation. It doesn’t look like the market wants to challenge the Bank of Japan or the G7 at this point, so look for the yen to hover around current levels with a sell bias until investors have a chance to fully evaluate the situation.

To recap… The markets were digesting the G7 intervention into the yen, but weren’t scared away as the currency rose from its low of the day on Friday. Many aren’t looking for a repeat of 1995 where the yen appreciated quite a bit in the aftermath of that earthquake. It’s a full week in the US data department with the results of existing home sales due out this morning. Rising home prices in Sweden are just another reason for higher rates. Norges Bank expresses more comfort about a stronger currency and higher rates. The ECB remains focused on higher inflation.

Mike Meyer
for The Daily Reckoning

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Radiation Fears Mount Despite Partial Restoration Of Power At Japanese Nuclear Plant

[ rfe/rl banner ]

Last updated (GMT/UTC): 20.03.2011 14:02

Workers at Japan's stricken Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant have managed to reconnected power to the facility's No. 1 and No. 2 reactors, a step they hope will soon allow them to restart the plant's cooling system and avert a wider nuclear disaster.

The power is crucial to attempts by engineers to cool down all six reactors at the earthquake- and tsunami-damaged facility and limit further leaks of radiation.

The operator of the nuclear plant warned that it may take several days for power to be restored at the No. 3 and No. 4 reactors.

The partial restoration of power came with fears mounting of the deadly spread of radiation, which has already been detected in tap water in Tokyo, crops in the region that houses the Fukushima plant, and Japanese beans exported to Taiwan.

More than 8,000 people have been confirmed dead as a result of the March 11 earthquake and resulting tsunami, with 12,000 still missing. More than 250,000 people are staying in evacuation centers after the tsunami wiped away entire communities along the northern Japanese shore.

How Bad Is It?

Hundreds of demonstrators gathered in the Japanese capital on March 20 to criticize their government for failing to prevent a crisis at the Fukushima plant after the quake hit.

One of the protest organizers, Takashi Misumi, said authorities have failed to acknowledge the true scope of the disaster and called for Japan to abandon its nuclear energy program immediately.

"The government has no intention of stopping its nuclear operations. It says this will never happen again," Misumi told Reuters. "I want to appeal to the world and say that this is very dangerous."

Japan's race to avert a full-scale meltdown at the Fukushima plant has sparked fresh concerns worldwide about the safety of nuclear power.

Those fears are now likely to rise even higher, as radiation contamination has been detected in vegetables, dust, and water near the nuclear zone.

Japan's chief cabinet secretary, Yukio Edano, told a press conference that traces of radiation had been detected in two prefectures near the Fukushima plant.

Edano said the government is considering whether to ban the sale of food items, like spinach and milk, produced in the region.

"We will continue investigating the situation and analyzing what research needs to be done. We will decide by tomorrow [March 21] whether we need to impose restrictions on consumption in a specific region or whether we need to restrict the output of food products."

The news has come to a blow to the region's farmers, who stand to lose their entire harvest.

Much In Doubt

The Japanese government has been careful not to portray the power restoration at the Fukushima plan as a certain success.

It took 300 engineers braving high radiation levels to connect power to the plant's No. 1 and No. 2 reactors, which will aid attempts to cool down the reactor and limit the leak of radiation. The facility contains six reactors, three of which were up and running when the country's largest recorded earthquake struck.

Edano said the efforts were "showing some effect" but added that the government "was not in a position to be able to say anything" more about whether a nuclear crisis has been averted.

Both Japanese and foreign visitors have sought to leave Japan in the wake of the deadly earthquake and tsunami, which has caused widespread power outages and required massive rescue and reconstruction operations.

An 80-year-old woman and a teenage boy were rescued from the wreckage of a house in northeastern Japan a full nine days after the 9.0-magnitude earthquake that set off the catastrophe.

An official from the Taiwanese radiation watchdog said the amount of radiation detected on a batch of Japanese fava beans sent on March 18 was well below Taiwan's legal limit and was not harmful to human health. He did not know where in Japan the beans originated.

compiled from news agency reports

Source: http://www.rferl.org/content/power_back_ japan_reactor_nuclear_crisis/2344059.html

Copyright (c) 2011. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036.


View the original article here

Radiation Fears Mount Despite Partial Restoration Of Power At Japanese Nuclear Plant

[ rfe/rl banner ]

Last updated (GMT/UTC): 20.03.2011 14:02

Workers at Japan's stricken Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant have managed to reconnected power to the facility's No. 1 and No. 2 reactors, a step they hope will soon allow them to restart the plant's cooling system and avert a wider nuclear disaster.

The power is crucial to attempts by engineers to cool down all six reactors at the earthquake- and tsunami-damaged facility and limit further leaks of radiation.

The operator of the nuclear plant warned that it may take several days for power to be restored at the No. 3 and No. 4 reactors.

The partial restoration of power came with fears mounting of the deadly spread of radiation, which has already been detected in tap water in Tokyo, crops in the region that houses the Fukushima plant, and Japanese beans exported to Taiwan.

More than 8,000 people have been confirmed dead as a result of the March 11 earthquake and resulting tsunami, with 12,000 still missing. More than 250,000 people are staying in evacuation centers after the tsunami wiped away entire communities along the northern Japanese shore.

How Bad Is It?

Hundreds of demonstrators gathered in the Japanese capital on March 20 to criticize their government for failing to prevent a crisis at the Fukushima plant after the quake hit.

One of the protest organizers, Takashi Misumi, said authorities have failed to acknowledge the true scope of the disaster and called for Japan to abandon its nuclear energy program immediately.

"The government has no intention of stopping its nuclear operations. It says this will never happen again," Misumi told Reuters. "I want to appeal to the world and say that this is very dangerous."

Japan's race to avert a full-scale meltdown at the Fukushima plant has sparked fresh concerns worldwide about the safety of nuclear power.

Those fears are now likely to rise even higher, as radiation contamination has been detected in vegetables, dust, and water near the nuclear zone.

Japan's chief cabinet secretary, Yukio Edano, told a press conference that traces of radiation had been detected in two prefectures near the Fukushima plant.

Edano said the government is considering whether to ban the sale of food items, like spinach and milk, produced in the region.

"We will continue investigating the situation and analyzing what research needs to be done. We will decide by tomorrow [March 21] whether we need to impose restrictions on consumption in a specific region or whether we need to restrict the output of food products."

The news has come to a blow to the region's farmers, who stand to lose their entire harvest.

Much In Doubt

The Japanese government has been careful not to portray the power restoration at the Fukushima plan as a certain success.

It took 300 engineers braving high radiation levels to connect power to the plant's No. 1 and No. 2 reactors, which will aid attempts to cool down the reactor and limit the leak of radiation. The facility contains six reactors, three of which were up and running when the country's largest recorded earthquake struck.

Edano said the efforts were "showing some effect" but added that the government "was not in a position to be able to say anything" more about whether a nuclear crisis has been averted.

Both Japanese and foreign visitors have sought to leave Japan in the wake of the deadly earthquake and tsunami, which has caused widespread power outages and required massive rescue and reconstruction operations.

An 80-year-old woman and a teenage boy were rescued from the wreckage of a house in northeastern Japan a full nine days after the 9.0-magnitude earthquake that set off the catastrophe.

An official from the Taiwanese radiation watchdog said the amount of radiation detected on a batch of Japanese fava beans sent on March 18 was well below Taiwan's legal limit and was not harmful to human health. He did not know where in Japan the beans originated.

compiled from news agency reports

Source: http://www.rferl.org/content/power_back_ japan_reactor_nuclear_crisis/2344059.html

Copyright (c) 2011. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036.


View the original article here

Monday, 21 March 2011

Libya, the Japanese Quake, Tsunami, Meltdowns: Food for the Super Moon

The HogueProphecy Bulletin


The second in the sequence of three close flybys of the Full Moon happens next Saturday 19 March. The phenomenon is astrology is called a Super Moon event. Did the waxing of the moon towards this event already trigger the Great Japanese Quake and Tsunami of 3/11/11? Are there more seismic events to come – seismic not only in earth changes but upheavals like revolutions, counter-revolutions in the Middle East, or quakes in politics in Washington or world economic markets?


The second in the sequence of three close flybys of the Full Moon happens next Saturday, 19 March. Did the waxing of the moon towards this event already trigger the Great Japanese Quake and Tsunami of 3/11/11?



George Gurdjieff (c. 1866-1949) proposed the human conditioning and mechanical behavior was “food for the Moon”. What did he mean?


George Gurdjieff (c. 1866-1949) proposed the human conditioning and mechanical behavior was “food for the Moon”. What did he mean?



There will be tsunamis in the Pacific and Indian Ocean in 2011.

Predictions for 2011

(Documented on 21 December 2010)


PROPHECY ALERT (19 March 2011): Libyan No Fly Zone and the fall of Gaddafi foreseen by Nostradamus. I am putting together an article for posting later today. If you are on my free e-news bulletin list you will be the first to know when the blog is online. If you are not yet a member of the e-news bulletin, you can join by clicking on newsletter. In the meantime, there is a large segment on the future of the Libyan Rebellion in this blog posted 15 March 2011.


Friends,
All the people across Japan will remember where they were at 2:46 pm Japanese Time on 3/11/11 when the fifth largest quake in recorded history, magnitude 9.0, hit the northeastern coast of the main Japanese island of Honshu near the port city of Sendai. Most of us living across the Pacific Ocean on the eastern side of the Ring of Fire, the most seismically active fault lines on the planet, will not remember where we were unless we remember our dreams and nightmares impressing brains within sleepy skulls in wee hours of the morning, Pacific Time.


I was one of the few on the West Coast of America who could remember where I was about 30 minutes after the quake struck. I had just helped my mother from the bathroom back to bed. She is in her 84th year and was enduring a third difficult night healing from a fall and concussion in the garden. I had stepped out of her bedroom to switch off the bathroom and hall lights. When I returned the television was on. That might be a mundane event in modern TV addicted times, but for my mother to have put the television on in the middle of the night was odd — perhaps a sign of post-concussion weirdness?


She told me later that she had a very strong impulse to turn it on.


So, as I walked into the bedroom the wide screen blazed in photons and electrons before my gaping, gasping face the great black wave shoving a whole city off its foundations.


The Pacific Ocean unslipped its earthen coastal boundaries along Japan running rampant, spilling over farms, plastic covered greenhouses and crop fields. The roiling surge was almost completely obscured, edged by black earth, topped thick with debris as if the detritus of neighborhoods sprinkled with metallic kernels of breaching, rolling fishing trawlers and bobbing cars were some “rubble of human ruin” cereal, riding a great wall of filthy milk, flooding out of Satan’s spilled Cheerios bowl from Hell.


Then the TV picture changed to a vision captured by the cyclopean eye of a cell phone gripped tightly by horror, pointing at a coastal residential foreshortened skyline of beautiful tiled oriental flanged roofs.


The houses came alive.


A host of them, tightly packed, started retreating back from the sea. Those farther away rushed and pushed along the nearer ones, as if the neighborhood of tiled roofs was a stampeding herd. The cyclops cell camera caught the great tiled rout carried on a frothing white and sweeping wing of a tsunami, undercutting and carrying away hundreds of houses from their earth-moored foundations! It was as if the world had tipped towards the cell phone camera spilling the sea and houses towards the person holding it on high ground.


Japan-tsunami-destroys-townOverwhelming as it was I began to cry at the humbling yet terrible beauty of the great wave’s power as cleanser of all human plans and follies. I understood in that tear-stained, heart-heaving moment why the ancients worshipped the sea as a great goddess for it seemed the works and day-to-day habitual rhythms — the taken for granted artificial environments constructed by man — were suddenly cast down, drowned, swept away by a divinely raging hand of goddess nature.


Another Jungian feminine archetype goddess may have influenced that invisible hand: the Moon, the starlit queen of tides.


She not only contributes her invisible force behind high and low ocean tides each day through her gravitational pull, but this heavenly body, heaving gravity as she speeds around us every month, may also cause the Earth’s tectonic plates to wax and wane.


It often has happened that great earthquakes take place a few days or a fortnight before or after the New or the Full Moon. Back in June 2010, I posted in the article Pluto and Uranus Squared Saturn a list of the great killer quakes of the 20th and 21st centuries focusing on how often and with shocking regularity the great temblors and tsunamis in modern history occur when Uranus is in square or opposition to the Earth or other major planets. The danger intensifies when Mars is also in 90-degree square or opposition to Earth or Jupiter.


Here is that list again, with one significant astrological addition. Notice in red how often the quakes happen exactly on a first and last quarter aspect when the Earth and Moon are squared at 90 degrees. What is more significant is plotting how close significant earthquakes episodes happen within a week of a New Moon or a Full Moon aspect:


Great Kanto (Tokyo) Quake, 1 September 1923, Magnitude 7.9
The Sun was in Virgo (an earth sign, meaning earthquakes) opposed Uranus in Pisces shaking and burning down Tokyo five days after the Full Moon on August 27.


Honshu, Japan, 2 March 1933, Magnitude 8.4
Uranus was in Aries, at that time, which was six days past New Moon.


Great Chilean Quake, 22 May 1960, magnitude 9.5
The most powerful quake ever recorded by instruments happened when the Sun just transited out of Taurus (an earth sign, quakes) with a near square of Uranus in Leo three days before New Moon.


Great Alaskan Quake, 27 March 1964 magnitude 9.3
Second largest quake ever seismically recorded happened when Uranus and Saturn were in opposing signs with Saturn in Pisces and Uranus in Virgo (an earth sign equals quakes!) one day before Full Moon!


Tangshan, China, 27 July 1976, magnitude 7.5
Perhaps the greatest killer quake recorded in modern times with an unofficial death toll exceeding 600,000 souls. Uranus was in Scorpio in an approximate square of Mars, Saturn and the Sun in Leo on a New Moon day!


Sichuan, China, 12 May 2008, magnitude 7.9
Vast earth waves and mountain landslides leveled cities carrying off over 80,000 in Central China when Uranus and Saturn were in opposite signs (Pisces and Virgo). One week after the New Moon was in first quarter aspect, 90 degrees square the Earth.


Sumatran Quake and Indian Ocean Tsunami, 26 December 2004, magnitude 9.1 to 9.3
The second largest quake in history recorded by seismograph caused a death toll mostly from its generated tsunami that unofficially killed over 300,000 people. Uranus and Pluto were at work again in a near grand T Square of a near Uranus in Pisces opposition with Mars in Virgo and Pluto in Sagittarius. It would seem that quakes do not always happen exactly on grand T-squares but within the approximate time and location of these. The quake did happen exactly on a Full Moon day!


(To see my article about Nostradamus foretelling the Great Indian Ocean quake: click on Nostradamus.)


Haitian Quake, 12 January 2010, magnitude 7.0
Three days before New Moon on 15 January.


Chilean Quake, 27 February 2010, magnitude 8.8
The seventh largest earthquake ever measured shook the coastline off Concepción unleashing a killer tsunami into four Chilean fishing ports. A more moderate tsunami raced across the Pacific Ocean requiring millions of people around the Pacific Rim to evacuate their shores. The Moon was in Virgo squared Jupiter in Pisces. Uranus was also 23 degrees Pisces, one day before Full Moon on 28 February.


Now let us look at the astrological aspects of the most recent historic quake in Japan:


Japan-housesAflameThe Great Japanese Quake and Tsunami, 11 March 2011, magnitude 8.9, upgraded to 9.0.
Uranus (ruler of sudden surprises, upheaval) was in the last most intense degree of Pisces (ruler of oceans, tsunamis) before it passed into the combustible fire sign of Aries on 13 March with a flourish. Reactor 2 at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant had a hydrogen explosion and suffered a partial meltdown on the last day of Uranus in Pisces. Then Reactor 3 also blew up its outer building around the nuclear reactor’s containment vessel harboring a possible meltdown within the reactor core on the first day of Uranus transiting Aries (an astrological marriage of nasty surprises). This happened less than six days from New Moon and one day before a First Quarter Moon squared Earth 90 degrees.


I never expected the New and Full Moon aspects in my review today would be so close or exact. And on two occasions when they were nearly a week off, the Earth-Lunar Square of the waxing First Quarter Moon played a serial factor in large earthquakes, if not a square of Mars or Uranus.


It is important to understand that the subtle forces of the stars and moon begin exerting pressure on planets and people days before the waxing and a few days after the waning of an aspect. Depending on the vulnerability of what is being pushed, be it psychic or seismic, movements and changes can happen in the early influence of an approaching aspect. It can happen right on the aspect, as was the case in the great killer quakes of Tangshan, China (1976) and the Great Indian Ocean quake of 2004; or once the aspect’s influence is lifting, the pressures exerted before the let-up cause a collapse into mood changes or earth changes. For instance, I can press upon a brick wall, harder and harder, until I tire and step back. The damage I did is a factor in the wall’s sudden collapse moments, days or weeks later.


The more powerful the aspect, the longer the pressure of cosmic influence. This is important to understand with what is coming in the guise of next Saturday’s Full Moon on 19 March 2011. On that day the Moon will approach Earth in a lunar perigee. In other words, when you look at the moon on Saturday, you will be seeing it coming to its closest approach in 18 years! What a joy to marvel at moonrise and moonset when distortions caused by looking at it through the thick atmosphere over the horizon will make the Moon appear even larger.


Astrologer Richard Nolle defines such a Full or New Moon at 90 percent or greater of its closest perigee to Earth a “Super Moon”. The last Full Moon on 18 February, the upcoming one on 19 March and 17 April’s Full Moon all qualify as Super Moons within Nolle’s calculations.


Beyond skeptical suspicion of astrological influence in our lives, few open-minded scientists can deny the measurable impact the Moon has on ocean tides. Looking at the list of great quakes above, perhaps the Full Moon’s monthly close presses and the dark New Moon pulling away have a tidal affect on the tectonic plates. Sometimes this cosmic breath in and out causes quakes and volcanic eruptions.


Ask anyone working in hospitals, law enforcement, firefighters or EMS medics and they will tell you that more murders, injuries, basic wacky “loony” behavior happens on a Full Moon night.


The term “you’re a loony” made famous by Monty Python comedians got its origin from the word “lunar” for Moon madness. Imagine then, what pressing yet subtle tidal pressures on the waters of Earth and the waters of the brain and body might kick loose during a Super Moon Looney time? Add also to that mix a near Jupiter-Pluto square; with the Super Moon transiting the earth sign Virgo (earth signs equal earthquakes).


In lieu of what regularity Uranus and Mars push and pull in squares or opposition during heightened seismic activity, consider the aspects on Super Full Moon day 19 March 2011 (all shown here in Pacific Time). The Full Moon opposes the Sun at 11:10 am. The Moon opposes Uranus 1:45 pm.


The Sun on Saturday approaches full conjunction with Uranus on 21 March, within the 2-degree orb of influence (that means Earth may be under the magnification of a Sun-Uranus cosmic pull on Saturday even if the conjunction is not exact).


The Sun is in the last degrees of ocean-tipping Pisces (28.32 degrees) conjunct Uranus (revolutions and sudden upheaval), which is just a quarter of a degree into Aries. The first and last degrees of transits into signs are most powerful.


Sun and Uranus are conjunct in southern declination (be watchful of wavy waters and trembling earth in the equatorial or the Southern Hemisphere).


The Super Moon is in opposition to the Sun and Uranus conjunction. If the Asian side of the Ring of Fire endures another major quake, my oracle predicts the danger would be moving south of Honshu Island into the equatorial or southern hemispheric areas. Be prepared in Kyushu Island (Japan), Okinawa (Japan), the Philippines, Indonesia, all the way south to Christchurch for more strong aftershocks in New Zealand after that devastating quake several weeks ago. The danger of a powerful aftershock and tsunami around the devastated northeastern coast of Honshu is also high. Cosmic influences magnifying a nuclear disaster in many damaged Japanese reactors on the 19th is also: high.


One of several Hydrogen gas explosions caught on camera on the last day of the Uranus transit of Pisces. Explosions continue as the planet ruling sudden surprises enters impulsive, fiery, Aries.


One of several Hydrogen gas explosions caught on camera on the last day of the Uranus transit of Pisces. Explosions continue as the planet ruling sudden surprises enters impulsive, fiery, Aries.



We had Super Moons in 1955, 1974, 1992 and 2005. The last was on 10 January 2005, a New Moon, roughly two weeks after the Indian Ocean quake and tsunami on the Full Moon of 26 December 2004. The great Japanese quake of 11 March 2011 happened just a little more than a week before the Super Full Moon on the 19th. I certainly hope this temblor and tsunami is the worst the current Super Moon may deal us and all that is left after an uneventful Saturday under big moonlight is the shouting between debunkers and astrologers on blogs.


That is my hope but not, I sense, going to be fulfilled during the Full Monty of the Moon.


There will be a violent shift of record winter storms into record spring storms and tornadoes in North America. Prepare for spring floods across America and Western Europe. The sudden swing of seasonal climate change from globally snowed under winter to globally warmed spring will hinge on the next full moon date.


There will be another major quake or volcanic eruption in the next 20 days of 7.5 or above 8 magnitude. Some Sun watchers who divine earthquakes by watching solar flare activity worry for the southern Japanese island of Kyushu being the next Japanese target.


In my case, my oracle keeps prompting the Philippines up in my mind as of more seismic or volcanic concern. What is far more pressing the psychic intuition is the constant oracular sense mounting that the northeastern quarter of the Pacific Rim’s Ring of Fire is going to be active this year like it has not been for many decades.


In Predictions for 2008, 2009 and 2010, I accurately forecasted quakes in the Cascadian Subduction Zone off the coast of Central Oregon. This vulnerable coast and Southwest Washington’s flat and sprawling beaches are ever my concern for a Sumatran-style unzipping of the Cascadian S.Z., which is almost geologically identical to the Sumatran fault that pushed monster waves across the Indian Ocean in late 2004.


I have already forecast in Predictions for 2011 a magnitude 5-to-6 magnitude quake for the Western Washington region over which I sit, typing this on my sandy and quake resonant island north of Seattle on the Puget Sound. However, left last but not least in my forecast in my e-books is an area along the US coast of most concerned to me. The region that may be influenced either by the big mooning of 19 March; or, other aspects of astrological power coming around the next Super Full Moon in April.


Be mindful and well prepared, those of you living in San Diego and Los Angeles for a major quake along the San Andreas or its tributary fault lines this year, perhaps sooner in spring than later. I have documented already in Predictions for 2009 and 2010 some accurate preliminary quakes with epicenters east of San Diego along the US-Mexican border.


There also is Bardarbunga, the large volcano in central Iceland. It might bardar-bee, bardar-BOOM because of March or April Super Moons, blowing ash across Europe. Bardarbunga is capable of vomiting twice as much ash fall than that which fell last year from its smaller neighbor with the unpronounceable Viking name: Eyjafjallajokull. (Gesunheit!)


There will be seismic, loony events in the mass unconscious mob mind of humans too.


Twentieth-Century mystic, G.I. Gurdjieff gave an esoteric slant to the mood tide-swinging influences the Moon upon us. He explained that planets evolve like people. The moon being the newer earth-born part of a binary planet relationship feeds upon the energy of the older for nourishment — A mother’s milk of human and animal unconsciousness.


It feeds upon and influences of our subconscious, mechanical behaviors. The moon makes us “nutty” bonkers, bouffants, as the source of its mysterious extraterrestrial buffet.


When you and your beloved look at the moon on the 19th, just say, “eat me” to that glowing orb. The baby planet Moon will invisibly comply. Gurdjieff says we are all unmindfully “food for the Moon.”


Now, I can almost see the question marks flying out of the reader’s brain. What in loony goodness is Mr. Gurdjieff mooning on about here? Moreover, what meaning, provocation, or a mystic’s inscrutable device in a figure of speech was intended when he blamed his disciple’s mechanical, idiotic conditioning as a lunar food source?


Maybe the moon, being a newer and primitive heavenly body pulling its gravitational weight inside and around us is a physical channel of a force of unprogressive unconsciousness. We are trying to emerge from it, snap out of its gravitational drag back to being habitually primitive. Gurdjieff would propose we cultivate a countermanding soul awareness to sense a cosmically unconscious lunar influence and rise above it.


Scientists might guffaw at all of this as subjective clap trap, but then, scientists do well to make us food for wars, climate changes, atomic bombs when they invent their machines without the wisdom to think through the consequences. Even Einstein saw his mistake when encouraging the creation of atomic weapons, mooning that President Franklin Delano Roosevelt and the American scientists would never be irresponsible, like an Adolf Hitler might, with weapons of mass destruction. When the Hitler threat was over in 1945, and after a few test fires on non-nuclear Japan, the United States started building atomic bombs by the hundreds before the Soviet Union lit off their first A-blast in 1949.


Einstein by that time began soul searching the unforeseen consequences of his scientific flight of atomic fancy lobbying FDR when the “good guys” started threatening civilization’s “good byes” by initiating a nuclear arms race with a head start of 250 US A-Bombs to 1 Russian device in 1949.


Food for thought, or food for the moon because of thoughtlessness…? We shall see.


Let us visit Libya’s future:


A Libyan rebel going vogue for the cable news cameras, mounting his rusted quadruple-A antiaircraft gun mounted on a truck. Cycles of time move from masculine dominant to feminine dominant periods lasting 36 years. We passed into a 36-year “feminine” influential period in 2008. When consciously understood, feminine forces inside all of us can be used to nurture a better future. However, when unconsciously applied, the same forces promote mass hysteria. Mob emotion trumps individual reason. Emotion becomes a drug, an opiate. I call this phenomenon of mass emotive unconsciousness: pheminin.


A Libyan rebel posing for the cable news cameras, mounting his rusted quadruple-A antiaircraft gun mounted on a truck. Cycles of time move from masculine dominant to feminine dominant periods lasting 36 years. We passed into a 36-year “feminine” influential period in 2008. When consciously understood, feminine forces inside all of us can be used to nurture a better future. However, when unconsciously applied, the same forces promote mass hysteria. Mob emotion trumps individual reason. Emotion becomes a drug, an opiate. I call this phenomenon of mass emotive unconsciousness: pheminin.



When the times of Cosmic Night grasp for the opiate of pheminin politics this tsunami can brush away regimes on a whim of impatient mass hysteria.

Predictions for 2011


Speaking of something Moon-looney is a Libyan Revolution without coherent leadership or a plan to defend itself against a modern, well armed, disciplined Libyan Army. The heart and bravery of the rebels is not in question. Their military “intelligence” however…?


It is guided by a hysteric mob psychology — military moon madness. You see untrained men thronging about the coastal road lifeline of Libya, without leaders, knowledge of tactics, a plan. But as the Libyan rebel I saw on TV, ducking from Gaddafi’s artillery barrage said with a grin as he fumbled with stripping and fixing his jammed rocket propelled grenade he planned to use for the first time: “We’ve got God on our side!”


Many of those men are now food for the desert flies. Food for the Moon. Regimes like Egypt could be overthrown by mass emotive demonstrations but mobs cannot govern a country, least of all themselves. I would add mobs in popular revolutions, if they do not find their leaders, discipline or focus, are food for Cadafi Luna (the decoding of Adaluncatif), the famous anagram Nostradamus used to describe the Libyan dictator in his prophecies.


Before Japanese catastrophes turned the one-dimensional attention span of CNN and other networks away from the Civil War in Libya, I could see camera footage of the East Libyan militias, if one could call them that, taking a desert road trip, packing their buddies with guns in the truck bed.


Hi ho! Hi Ho! Allah willing they go, fighting westward down a lost highway to Gaddafi’s stronghold, the city of Tripoli. The rebellion took al-Brega and other coastal towns. Their little victories against small Libyan regular army units in the first skirmishing phase of the civil war were touted by gushing news anchors in the West as “great victories” against the nut-job dictator.


I watched that armed rabble, spending precious ammunition blasting away at the air for the news cameras with their secondhand and rusty guns, mobs of them thronging their antique T-54 tanks like third world buses. No commanders, no order and no supplies except for surplus military hardware ransacked from Gaddafi’s depots in Benghazi.


I saw college students getting a crash course on which way to point their RPGs while under bombardment from Gaddafi’s freshly painted and armored APCs mounted with 50 caliber machine guns and 20mm cannons. I watched Men in street clothes pose a brave front on sand blasted and weather beaten triple-A antiaircraft guns mounted on pickup trucks. They just fired straight up in the air when jet engines thundered overhead, unseen, the gunners hoping to hit something other than their own helmetless heads when that entire spewing ordinance came falling back out of the sky.


I warned back on 3 March 2011 in Climate Change, Libya, and Living Free from the Future what was going to soon happen to the rebellion against Gaddafi if it remained a rout of heroic warrior clowns without ring masters in Benghazi, or officers to train and guide them:


“I said it at the beginning of the Libyan Revolution and I say it again, as a compassionate warning to the revolutionaries in the eastern coastal cities of Libya, such as Benghazi: Gaddafi will launch an offensive on you. It will happen this month, and you people of Benghazi will need to get yourself organized or by April, you will have Gaddafi’s tanks shooting you pointblank in your streets. You will have your oceanside demonstrations strafed by Gaddafi’s Tripolian and Algerian pilots in jets and attack helicopters.


“Listen well; there will be no No Fly Zone organized by the US Navy or the NATO air forces flying across the Mediterranean from Italy. That simply will not happen as long as you continue to be a leaderless circus in the streets, playing with your rusting, second hand tanks, and shooting off into the air magazine after wasted magazine of your secondhand anti-aircraft guns for the entertainment of brave Ben Wederman’s CNN cameras.


“You need to organize.


“Undisciplined revolutions of leaderless masses never succeed. And many an organized revolution can also succumb to a tyrannical state, initially caught off guard, but soon finding its savage footing and take aim, putting fire and chemical weapons on the cities and towns of rebels.”


Gaddafi’s daffy antics before the camera, his rambling incoherent speeches should not be the news media’s sole gauge of what he is capable of. He is daffy but not dumb. He has controlled the most tribal of Arab-North African countries for 42 years. He always had a contingency plan to suppress a rebellion of the tribes of Cyrenaica (Eastern Libya), never a friend of his clan or his tribal allies. He made sure the militias there had little training, bad command structures. He threw them the remains of lousy, defunct-Soviet weapons while the Tipolian Western Libyan tribes, revolutionary militias, his blood and allies, procured the most modern Russian-made weapons, jets, artillery and T-72 tanks.


Back in early March, the rabble-lion rebellion forces against Gaddafi came down the coastal road from Cyrenaica high on courage and cockiness, but lo on heavy armament or logistical supply or support, boasting they were going to drive on to Tripoli and take Gaddafi out. In the meantime, Gaddafi’s forces took their time to regroup, consolidate their alliances militarily and politically. They then systematically liquidated rebellions in Western Libya while letting the rabble from Cyrenaica overextend themselves from their base in Benghazi. Now the counter offensive I predicted back in a 22nd-February blog (click on Nostradamus predictions), is on course for a march on Benghazi:


Gaddafi will try to take [the old refineries and fields] back, promise reward of the rich oil industry to those western tribes and sub-tribes leaders who support the crackdown.


People inside Libya phone the outside world about Gaddafi’s acts of genocide. Believe it. This civil war could descend into a battle between Libya’s tribes to control oil resources.


At the time of this writing (22 February 2011), Gaddafi and his tribal allies in the secret police and armed forces are ruthlessly liquidating rebels in Tripoli while air strikes on Benghazi continue.


I predict Gaddafi intends to launch his heavily armored forces against Benghazi, the heart of the revolution.


Nostradamus on the Fate of Gaddafi
(HogueProphecyBulletin 22 February 2011)


On 14 March 2011, the Libyan army retook al-Brega in Eastern Libya. Al-Brega is a main petrol and natural gas refining port that powers electricity to Eastern Libya cities such as Benghazi. Rag tag and tacky armed rebel forces were pounded by air, artillery and tank fire and sent fleeing down the road to Benghazi, scattering their weapons along the same sand scoured thoroughfare Erwin Rommel’s Afrika Korps chased the routed British in 1941.


A rebel spokesman defended the rapid retreat with what authority to speak to the media I do not know, and neither does the media, since there does not seem to be a real revolutionary government in Benghazi, just hope and expectation of one. Anyway, he spokesman explained the rebel fighters were not routed but had chosen to leave al-Brega as a “tactical maneuver.”


Tactics are always trumped by strategic maneuvers, such as that achieved by Gaddafi’s armed forces who by taking al-Brega. Gaddafi now can pull the plug on power in the rebel capital of Benghazi. Libyan tanks now begin their advance on that second largest city of Libya, which is only a two-hour drive up the road. On the Ides of March (15 March 2011), they fight pitched battles in Ajdabia on the approaches of Benghazi. By next Saturday, Gaddafi will be closing an iron ring around blacked out Benghazi under the light of the Super Full Moon.


Now to other deadly arenas of Arab Revolution.


Since the waxing moon has a pull on mass mob moods, one sees demonstrations in Yemen become bloodier last weekend with police firing live ammunition into demonstrators.


More significant than this is what is brewing for the Full Moon weekend to come in Saudi Arabia.


On Thursday (10 March 2011) a day before the Japanese Quake, Sunni Saudi Arabian police fired tear gas and rubber bullets into a crowd of hundreds of Shia protesters in the city of al-Qatif in oil rich northeastern province, the source of nearly all of its oil. There has been a surge in activity on Facebook to organize “Day of Rage” demonstrations for after Friday Prayers on 11 March. It fizzled. Most of the users are educated young (and mostly majority Sunni) human rights activists and intellectuals living in the main urban centers of Riyadh and Jeddah.


I would expect the worst disturbances coming next Friday through Saturday under the Super Full Moon will be sectarian in nature, in al-Qatif and other oil drilling and refining towns and ports along the northeastern corner of the Saudi kingdom with a sizable Shia minority of 15 percent of the population.


Next door in the Shia principality ruled by a handful of Sunni princelings called Bahrain, watch sectarian tempers under lunar influences intensify too. The Bahrainian monarch on 15 March declared emergency rule for three months and called on Sunni monarchs of Arabia and other Gulf states to send their solders into Bahrain to suppress all protest. Push has led to the people shoving back. Bahrain will become a sectarian battlefield when the Moon is super full on the 19th.


Egypt’s revolution may also suffer mood swings towards the sectarian with further burnings of Egyptian Coptic churches by the Moonstruck Muslim majority in the Nile Delta cities and towns.


Moon moody influences the subjectivity of economic speculation.


Look for the stock markets to feel the pain of the Japanese Quake, the uncertainty of tech market stocks because so much of our technical products are manufactured from a now-fractured Japan for the next few weeks if no meltdown of nuclear power plants happens (it will happen).


Global economic recovery will suffer a huge setback if nuclear meltdowns at the Fukushima Daiich Plant breach their containment vessels like radioactive effluent lava fuel rods ooze from the butt end of containment theory.


The Dow Jones plummeted -228.48 points back on 10 March because of a number of bad economic reports, including an increase this month US unemployment. I guess it takes no Nostradamus to predict that a Day of Raging Shias in the oil producing cities of Saudi Arabia and Bahrain will make next Friday’s stocks plummet some more as oil could climb higher beyond the new $100 per barrel daily averages. But then, who can easily predict these Gaddafi Looneytoon times, what with the Moon’s ramp up to perigee on 19 March. For all I know the stock will gain hundreds of points by the end of next week on speculation of all the reconstruction investment in Japan to come (not!).


In my forecasts for 2011, I often drew readers’ attention to the months of March and April, two of the most potentially problematic months in a half-year of crises in political leadership resulting in an economic relapse to deep recession.


It starts with the Super Full Moon but the volatility does not end there. A fury of a political kind erupts next Friday just a day before Full Moon madness with a potential shutdown of the US Federal government because of budget gridlock between Donkeycrats verses a coalition of Dumbo-Publican-Mad Hatter Tea Party pols. Thus will begin a six month period of “Wattsington” DC riotous politics on the floors of US Congress that I described in detail in the Predictions for 2011 chapter “Wattsington DC”.


I would like to close with an interpretation of a prophecy written for that book’s final chapter, Alarm Bells Sound the Unsustainable:

A tectonic rock thrown into a huge Pacific pond. This NOAA satellite image of the Pacific Ocean shows the tsunami wave height as it rolled across to the Americas. A tectonic rock thrown into a huge Pacific pond. This NOAA satellite image of the Pacific Ocean shows the tsunami wave height as it rolled across to the Americas.


Neptune (the planet named after a Greek sea god) moves into Pisces come April. It will be a year of great sea storms and flooding La NiƱa rains for the whole world.


Nature is turning up the volume of her screaming gales. Her thundering quakes and waves mount until the alarm bells of an unsustainable abuse of the ecosystem begin their first ringing sound.


2010 was the year of the temperature tsunami. The tsunami I foresaw in the Pacific for 2011 has happened this week. It will not be the last great wave mounting the shores made of dry earth and more etheric shores of our unconsciousness. There will be events that are more tsunami-like in 2011. Political tsunamis that wash away regimes, political movements, presidential hopefuls, like tea flooding out of a party cup. Arab waves of revolution sweep some regimes away, yet some dictatorial regimes will sweep the undisciplined and hysterical popular revolutions aside in a tsunami of bloodshed.


The earthquake and an ocean flooding over Japan, the Libyan civil war turning civil rout are all food for Neptune in its final degrees of transit out of revolutionary Aquarius. On 5 April 2011, the great ruler of subconscious mind and spiritual transformation, the ocean God-engine of our weather and waves, moves into its home sign of oceanic Pisces.


Deep waters wait to be plumbed by the potential human awareness of each of you; or let the force of conditioned habit stamp “eat me” on the backside of your soul illuminated in the moonlight.


Never was there a time in history when human existence needed the IN-significance of individual transformation. It is time to be empowered by awareness we ignore and toss like pearls to the swine of our conditioned, programmed ego-minds.


Unconscious habit is ever the food of negative futures.


It is time to meditate.


I can share my meditations with you, if you but ask. Contact me.


Meditation is the only bridge to a future golden age of a new humanity.

John Hogue

(15 March 2011)

Wednesday, March 16th, 2011, by johnhogue and is filed under "Earthquakes, 3/11/11, 8.9 earthquake in Japan, 9.0 earthquake in Japan, Adaluncatif, Africa Corps, Ajdabia, al-Brega, Alaskan Quake, Astrology predictions, Bardarbunga, Benghazi, Cascadian Subduction Zone, Chilean Quake, Christchurch quake, Cyrenaica, Einstein, Eyjafjallajokull, food for the moon, forecasts for 2011, Fukushima Daiichi, Gaddafi, Great Kanto Quake, Gurdjieff, Hitler, Hogue, Indian Ocean tsunami, Japanese killer tsunami, Japanese quake, John Hogue, Jungian, Kanto Quake, Kyushu, LIbyan Revolution, Los Angeles, Mars, Meditation, Monty Python, New Zealand, Nostradamus, Oregon coast, Osho, Philippines, Pluto and Uranus Squared Saturn, prediction, Predictions, Predictions for 2009, predictions for 2010, predictions for 2011, prophecies for 2011, Prophecy, Puget Sound, Richard Nolle, Ring of Fire, Rommel, Roosevelt, San Diego, Seattle, Super Moon, Supermoon, Tangshan Quake, tsunami, Uranus, Washington coast ". You can leave a response here, or send a Trackback from your own site.


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Friday, 18 March 2011

MEDIA COVERAGE OF JAPANESE REACTORS AND THE TRUTH

Last night Channel 4 "News" broadcast an item from somebody standing in front of a taxi rank in Tokyo who said that the fact that there were taxis there unused (2 of them) proved that residents were staying home, which in turn proved a level of panic.

   My girlfriend, who has been in Japan, said that, because people downsized from Japanese industry, had gone into taxiing there was always a considerable oversupply of taxis. It is not like Britain and in particular London, where licencing regulations keep the numbers artificially below market demand. Clearly C4 were deliberately lying to promote their anti-nuclear scare story to the British audience.

  The fact is that nobody has been killed in this "catastrophe"; nobody has been injured; less radioactivity has been absorbed by anybody offsite than would be absorbed from an X-ray, air flight, or probably from eating a banana; far less radioactivity is being emitted than a conventional coal burning plant would over time (coal contains natural radioactives, like bananas & everything else). There is no honest journalist or politician who says or implies that nuclear is less than 100s of times safer than conventional power.
-----------------------
That is a comment I put up on Channel 4 News' site this morning. It has yet to appear.
I also sent a letter based on Saturday's entry to dozens of newspaper's worldwide, none of whom, according to Google News, have published it.

The coverage of an incident which has neither killed not injured anybody at all now clearly greatly exceeds that for the rest of the entire Tsunami/earthquake. Occasionally MSM reporting will include, very quietly, a mention of the fact that the amount of radiation anybody is going to experience is on the level of eating a banana. However far more often they get somebody on from some eco-fascist organisatio9n to tell all sorts of alarmistt lies without allowing any balance (eg C4 again had a Greenpeace spokesman balanced by a government one in the knowledge that the government one would not dismount from the fence).

   Sensible discussion comes from Jerry Pournelle and interestingly enough from The Register. Do yet again we see the blogsphere is where you go for actual information. Presumably why in America now and Britain next year, more people choose to get their news online than from the press.

   On the other hand if you think journalists talk nonsense look at how the EU are describing zero injuries as the "Apocalypse"
Labels: eco-fascism, International politics, Media



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