Sunday 17 July 2011

Stock Market: The Forecast No One Is Talking About But Me

 

Michaelhas an opinion on the stock market, where it’s headed, which you're not reading or hearing anywhere else. This morning, he presents that forecast for the benefit of our new readers and to ensure that all our readers know where he stands on the stock market’s direction.

I have an opinion on the stock market, where it’s headed, which I’m not reading or hearing anywhere else. I’d like to present that forecast this morning for the benefit of my new readers and to ensure that all my readers know where I stand on the stock market’s direction.

Very quickly, a little history of where we have been…

One of the greatest bull markets in history, with a run in excess of 20 years, came to an end when the Dow Jones Industrial Average peaked out at 14,164 in October of 2007.

From there, a vicious bear market took hold, knocking stocks down by 54% by March of 2009, when the Dow Jones hit 6,440. This is what I classify as Phase I of the bear market: the initial takedown.

Since March of 2009, we have been in a bear market rally, which has taken the Dow Jones up 93% as of this morning. We are presently in the 29th month of the bear market rally. These rallies can easily last three years. This is what I classify as Phase II of the bear market: the “luring.”

Phase II of a bear market is the period in which investors are lured back into the stock market under the pretense that all is well again.

Where we are now and where we are headed…

We are waiting for Phase III of the bear market to start…but it could still be some months off.

Phase III of the bear market will take stocks back down again, with stocks possibly testing their previous lows; in this case, 6,440 on the Dow Jones. I call Phase III the final takedown. It’s the point where the great majority of investors have given up on the stock market and the economy…a great buying opportunity for smart money.

You are likely reading this and saying, “Michael, that’s quite the prediction. You are saying that stocks could fall back down 50%?” To that question, I say, yes; that is correct.

So far, Phase I and Phase II of this bear market have been classical text-book case studies. They have gone off with out a hiccup, and I expect Phase III to be a classical final takedown of stock prices.

I want to specify that I see profits still on the table for stock market investors, albeit not the profits we saw in 2009 and 2010. This market will continue to climb the Wall of Worry. The government will get its debt ceiling lifted, the Dow Jones could even pass the 13,000 level, but time is definitely limited for the rally we have been experiencing.

The United States is in a great period…

http://www.profitconfidential.com/stock-market-advice/stock-market-the-forecast-no-one-is-talking-about-but-me/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=stock-market-the-forecast-no-one-is-talking-about-but-me

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