Looking Worse

 

Most reasonable (and unconflicted) observers would agree that the U.S. economy is not "recovering" in any real sense of the word. That doesn't necessarily mean, of course, that they aren't hopeful about the future. Unfortunately, various reports, including the three articles featured below, suggest the outlook going forward is worse than what we have now -- and looking shakier by the day.

"Murdoch Warns of ‘Fearful’ Business" (Financial Times)

News Corporation’s James Murdoch has warned that companies have become “very fearful” about the macroeconomic environment in recent weeks, with the corporate mood “not great” as consumer confidence and spending falters.Speaking on stage at the Cannes Lions advertising conference, Mr Murdoch, deputy chief operating officer of News Corp, said: “The mood music has shifted, people are very fearful.”He added: “Hopefully companies are in a good enough shape after the shock of 2008-2009 that we are a better position to go forward.”

"Analysis: Christmas Gloom for China Toymakers as Orders Shrivel" (Reuters)

China may be the world's toy-making capital, but for Cheung Tak Ching the Christmas season is shaping up to be lean and joyless.

Sitting in a showroom amid an array of bright smiling toys he makes for Walt Disney Co (DIS.N) and Mattel Inc (MAT.O), the 40-year industry veteran bemoans a 5-10 percent fall in pre-orders.

"Our customers, mainly in the United States, still have good levels of inventory after restocking last year," said Cheung, managing director of Wah Lung Toys, which operates several factories in southern China employing nearly 8,000 workers.

After wrenching change that saw hundreds of toy factories in China shut down in the 2008 financial crisis, hopes were high for a rebound. But Europe's debt crisis and a sluggish U.S. economic recovery are curbing Western demand, while cost and Labor pressures within China are mounting.

...

The slowdown in China's industrial growth is also reflected in the freight cargo market. Throughput in Hong Kong's container terminals grew only 1.2 percent in the first five months, the Hong Kong Port Development Council said in preliminary data.Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd (0293.HK), the world's largest international cargo carrier, said freight fell 12.9 percent in May from a year earlier."The American economy still is dismal. Consumer confidence is starting to drop as most people believe that there is going to be a double-dip recession," said Shaun Rein, managing director of China Market Research Group in Shanghai.

"Nation's Small Businesses Seem Stuck in Recession, U.S. Bank Survey Finds (MinnPost)

Despite pronouncements that the recession ended two years ago, small-business owners see a very different reality, according to a recent 25-state survey.Seventy-eight percent of of nearly 3,000 small-business owners think the United States is still in a recession, according to Minneapolis-based U.S. Bank, which released the survey Thursday.While that’s down from the 89 percent who saw the nation in a recession a year ago, 85 percent of respondents also think the economy will still be stuck in a recession this time next year.

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