US Unemployment Another Counterfeit Figure from the Fed

03/23/11 Paris, France – What were we talking about yesterday? Oh yes…something about a big, nasty bird…and Japan.

First, let’s report the news from yesterday…then we’ll come back to this subject. To give you a preview, Japan is using quantitative easing – money printing – to cover the holes in its budget. With the need to rebuild its economy and its infrastructure, our guess is that it’s going to do a lot more of it.

Back in the USA, stocks went up a bit yesterday. (Or they went down a bit, we can’t remember…) Gold and the dollar were about even. Nothing much worth reporting, in other words.

But investors, politicians, and economists all seem to think the economy is on the road to recovery. The only people who don’t seem to believe it are the people who actually live and work in the real economy – people who shop at the supermarket and depend on wages.

Which reminds us of a funny incident. A Fed governor recently tried to explain to an audience of ordinary citizens how the government figured the “core” inflation rate. The lumpen didn’t go for it at all. They heckled the poor man. “When was the last time you went to the supermarket,” they asked.

The most recent inflation numbers tell us that prices rose 0.5% in February. For the mathematically challenged dear reader, this is an annual rate of 6%, or 550 basis points above the rate at which the Fed lends money.

But wait…the feds tell us not to pay any attention to this number. They want us to focus on the “core” number, from which they’ve taken out the things that are going up – food and energy. Having taken out the prices that are going up – even though they are essential items – they thus magnify the items that are left. Notably, housing. And guess what? Housing is going down. So, falling house prices make it possible for the feds to report a low “core” rate of inflation – which is a lie and a fraud. The average family is actually spending more and more money just to keep food on the table and gas in the tank.

And here’s another counterfeit figure from the feds: it was widely reported last week that the unemployment rate was down to its lowest level in almost two years. The unemployment numbers are so cruelly twisted by the feds we feel sorry for them. The most obvious way is by means of “seasonal adjustments.” Look what seasonal adjustments did to the latest numbers. USA TODAY has the report:

WASHINGTON (AP) – Unemployment rose in nearly all of the 372 largest US cities in January compared to the previous month, mostly because of seasonal changes such as the layoff of temporary retail employees hired for the holidays.

The Labor Department said Friday that the unemployment rate rose in 351 metro areas, fell in only 16, and was unchanged in 5. That’s worse than December, when the rate fell in 207 areas and increased in 122.

Other seasonal trends, such as the layoff of construction workers due to winter weather, also contributed to the widespread increase.

Nationwide, the unemployment rate dropped to 9% in January from 9.4% the previous month. It ticked down to 8.9% in February. But the national data is seasonally adjusted, while the metro data isn’t, which makes it more volatile. The metro data also lags the national report by one month.

See what we mean? Fewer people actually have jobs, but if you “seasonally adjust” the numbers, unemployment is going down.

Prices are going up everywhere too, but if you take out the stuff that is going up, you see prices stable.

And here are some other little facts that come to our attention this morning: one out of ever five houses in Florida is vacant. Holy sawgrass! How are the feds going to show housing prices going up?

Back to Japan…

We were just pointing out that while everyone is looking for “black swans” it may be the white ones that bite. They might be imposters. Scratch the paint off and they’re often gray…and nasty.

Take QE2, for example. The Japanese are running out of money. The government already owes 2,000% of annual tax receipts…the savings rate is falling to zero…and deficits are bigger than ever.

What’s a poor Japanese central banker to do? Turn to QE! It hasn’t worked yet. But it hasn’t done any harm either. The inflation rate in Japan really is near zero. Japanese exporters are desperate to bring down the yen. Everyone wants a little inflation…everyone wants more money to rebuild after the recent disasters…everyone wants QE!

So, give it to them…good and hard!

Which is why we think Japanese stocks are a good bet. They’ve been going down for 21 years. They’re cheap. If the economy bounces back – as Warren Buffett cheerfully expects – Japanese stocks will do well. If the economy doesn’t bounce back…as we cheerfully expect…it will be off to the races with QE. The effects won’t be immediate, we predict. But they will be dramatic. One day, prices will soar. People will rush into stocks to protect themselves. Japanese stocks will be the world’s top performers…like Zimbabwean stocks were at the height of that country’s recent hyperinflation.

Buy Japanese stocks now. Put them away. Wait until you read about them in the paper.

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning

Since founding Agora Inc. in 1979, Bill Bonner has found success and garnered camaraderie in numerous communities and industries. A man of many talents, his entrepreneurial savvy, unique writings, philanthropic undertakings, and preservationist activities have all been recognized and awarded by some of America's most respected authorities. Along with Addison Wiggin, his friend and colleague, Bill has written two New York Times best-selling books, Financial Reckoning Day and Empire of Debt. Both works have been critically acclaimed internationally. With political journalist Lila Rajiva, he wrote his third New York Times best-selling book, Mobs, Messiahs and Markets, which offers concrete advice on how to avoid the public spectacle of modern finance. Since 1999, Bill has been a daily contributor and the driving force behind The Daily Reckoning . 

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Don’t Worry, Be Happy: Unemployment Is Down, The Stock Market Is Up And The Economy Is Going To Be Just Fine

Haven't you heard?  The coming economic collapse has officially been canceled.  The U.S. economy is in full recovery mode.  It has just been announced that the U.S. unemployment rate fell to 8.9% in February.  That was the third monthly decline in a row.  192,000 new jobs were created in the U.S. during February.  That was the fifth month in a row in which the U.S. economy has gained jobs.  Corporate profits are way up.  For the most recent month that numbers are available, sales of GM vehicles were up 49%, sales of Chrysler vehicles were up 13%, and sales of Ford vehicles were up 10%.  Can't you see?  The great American economic machine has roared back to life.  The stock market is way up this year.  The recession is over.  Our financial system is more stable than ever.  Pretty soon all Americans that want jobs are going to be able to get jobs and all of our government debts are going to be paid off.  The greatest days for the U.S. economy are just around the corner.  So don't worry, be happy.

Don't worry, be happy - the U.S. unemployment rate is falling and it will continue to fall.  Don't be concerned that according to Gallup, the U.S. unemployment rate actually rose to 10.3% at the end of February.  Everyone knows that U.S. government numbers are far more accurate than the numbers that Gallup puts out.  Just don't pay any attention to the "doom and gloomers" and just keep on watching American Idol.  Very soon there will be plenty of jobs for everyone.

Don't worry, be happy - globalism is doing wonderful things for the U.S. economy.  Just look at all the incredibly cheap products from foreign nations such as China that are available in our stores.  Do you think that all of this stuff would be so cheap if we didn't have free trade?  We may have a massive "trade imbalance" right now, but this is just temporary as we transition over to a one world economy.  The job losses may look bad right now, but once our wage levels go down low enough we will be able to export more stuff to the rest of the world.  So don't be alarmed when the "protectionists" tell you that between December 2000 and December 2010, 38 percent of the manufacturing jobs in Ohio were lost, 42 percent of the manufacturing jobs in North Carolina were lost and 48 percent of the manufacturing jobs in Michigan were lost.  Those workers just need to get more "education" so that they can be competitive in today's global economy.  And please don't listen to people like Alan Blinder, an economist at Princeton, who is projecting that offshoring will ulti­mately affect up to 40 million American jobs.  The truth is that there are many jobs that simply cannot be outsourced.  For example, workers over in China and India will never be able to flip the burgers that need flipping here in the United States and they will never be able to welcome people to your local Wal-Marts.

Don't worry, be happy - the fact that the number of Americans on food stamps has set another new all-time high (44 million) is just an indication that more Americans are learning how to use government services.  At some point this number will start to go down as the U.S. economy roars back to life.

Don't worry, be happy - the fact that new home sales in the United States have been setting record lows just means that the only direction they have to go is up.  As the employment situation continues to brighten, it is inevitable that the housing industry in the U.S. will surge to greater heights than ever before.

Don't worry, be happy - the fact that so many Americans are going back to work means that lots of additional tax money will soon be pouring into the coffers of state and local governments.  In Idaho, Boise County has just declared bankruptcy, but that is just an isolated incident.  We shouldn't be seeing too many more local governments default on their debts.

Don't worry, be happy - the economic improvement that we are seeing right now will soon mean that the austerity measures being implemented across the United States will soon come to an end.  Yes, times have been tough in many communities lately.  The following is an excerpt from a recent New York Times article that describes the brutal austerity that has been implemented in Vallejo, California....

Vallejo is still in bankruptcy. The police force has shrunk from 153 officers to 92. Calls for any but the most serious crimes go unanswered. Residents who complain about prostitutes or vandals are told to fill out a form. Three of the city’s firehouses were closed. Last summer, a fire ravaged a house in one of the city’s better neighborhoods; one of the firetrucks came from another town, 15 miles away. Is this America’s future?

Sadly, that article in the New York Times was far too negative.  The truth is that things are starting to turn around.  Soon our cities and towns will be more prosperous than ever and all of this "austerity" will just be a bad memory.  It is only a matter of time.

Don't worry, be happy - Barack Obama has announced a great plan for reducing the federal budget deficit.  As the U.S. economy grows at a 5 or 6 percent pace for the rest of the decade the budget deficit is going to just keep on shrinking.  Thanks to Obama, our budget deficit will be reduced to 607 billion dollars by 2015.  Obama's policies are going to lead to much greater financial strength for the U.S. government.  Those that are warning that the U.S. government cannot handle this much debt simply do not understand history.  As a percentage of GDP, our debt really isn't that bad.  When analyst Mary Meeker recently told BusinessWeek that the U.S. government has a "net worth of a negative $44 trillion" she was just exaggerating the situation.  The truth is that the U.S. government is on really solid ground financially.

Don't worry, be happy - the price of oil cannot possibly stay this high.  Yes, U.S. crude rose to $104 a barrel today, but that is just because of the crisis in Libya.  The American people are just going to have to deal with higher gas prices for a few weeks.  ABC News is reporting that regular unleaded is selling for $5.29 a gallon at one gas station in Orlando, Florida.  But of course that won't last for too long.  Things will get back to normal soon.

Surely Barack Obama and his crack team of national security experts are on the verge of solving the crisis in Libya even as we speak.  With incredibly competent diplomatic professionals such as Hillary Clinton on the job, it is only a matter of time until the chaos in the Middle East comes to an end.

The peace and stability that the Obama administration is going to bring to the Middle East is going to drive oil prices back down.  So please don't worry - you will probably be paying 2 dollars for a gallon of gasoline by Christmas.  The price of oil is not going to set a new record high and it is not going to cause another financial panic like we witnessed back in 2008.

Everything is going to be okay.  Please do not listen to any of the "doom and gloomers", the "gold bugs", the "protectionists", the "armchair economists" or the "conspiracy theorists".  Do you think that they know more than the highly educated experts in the Obama administration, the highly educated experts running the Federal Reserve or the highly educated experts on the mainstream media?

Yes, we have had some "glitches" in the economy recently, but very competent people are very busy fixing all of those problems.  So instead of being obsessed with our "economic problems", you should just relax and have some fun.  Baseball season is getting ready to start and all month fantasy baseball leagues are going to be forming.  Now is a great time to join one.  A new season of Dancing With The Stars is going to begin shortly, and this cast looks like the best one yet.  Jennifer Lopez and Steven Tyler have been wonderful additions to American Idol this season.  Did you see the dramatic unveiling of the "final 13" on Idol the other night?  It was great television.  A new Matt Damon has just come out and Justin Bieber just got a new haircut.  Life in America is good.

Many of you already have to work two or three jobs just to pay the bills.  Why spend your precious free time reading websites like The American Dream which will just get you all riled up about the state of the economy for no reason whatsoever?

There is nothing to worry about.

Everything is under control.

Don't worry, just be happy.




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