Lock, Stock and Barrel

It had to come. Portugal has run out of other peoples money, the Socialist govt has quit and new austerity measures, draconian to say the least, are to be enforced by the unelected of Brussels, their new masters.

Money will be controlled directly from the unaccountable (and very likely insolvent) European Central Bank, based on the future earnings of the Germans and overseen by the unelected European Commission. Taxes will be raised, services will be cut, interest rates will soar.

Portugal, as a sovereign nation is finished. As Rothschild said "give me control of a country's money supply and I care not who makes the laws". He was right. Portugal is now owned, lock, stock and barrel not by the people, but by the banks who will buy the bonds issued by the ECB to fund their public services.

Without entering into too much hyperbole, are we entering a new age where democratically elected governments are quite literally replaced by banks? Citizens become mere overdrawn "customers" to be held in ever increasing debt slavery and bondage to unelected masters? Icelanders knew this and simply defaulted, leaving outraged "bondholders" who had bought into power AND return holding the stinking nappy, unable to suck the future earnings of Icelanders with 60% tax rates. The EU is DESPERATE to get Iceland into the quicksand so that it can control Icelands debt and more importantly, the only means it has to repay. The very labour of the future people of Iceland.

The EU and it's central bank have performed the perfect coup. All future labour of the Portuguese now belongs to bankers, backup with the money of EU taxpayers, if required. No bank can fail. They have become our masters. They own us using our own money and that of our children not yet born to do it. Masterful slavery indeed.

Where is John Galt?



Copyright © Old Holborn 2007-2008 and the respective owners whoever they may be - though it's hardly likely is it?. All rights reserved. Every single one. None of the materials provided on this web site may be used, eaten, reproduced, or transmitted, in whole or in part, in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, carrier pidgeon, osmosis, semaphore, chav txting (gr8) recording or the use of any information storage and retrieval system, papyrus, bits of old toilet paper, fag packets, carrier bags, mystic meg etc., except as provided for under fair use, without permission in writing from the publisher - me and my dog. To request such permission and for further enquiries, contact the dog using the contact form. Offer her a bone. She likes bones.

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Stock picking Q1 results

Today is the day where we report the Q1 results for our friendly stock picking contest. It is the 3rd year and after winning the competition in 2009, I unfortunately did not perform as well last year but am certainly hoping to get back on top this year. One quarter in, I have to say that it’s been a rather boring ride so far with my picks as all of my picks are within 5% of each, all being more or less flat on the year. In a down year that’d be great but some of my competitors such as Mike from TheFinancialBlogger have done an amazing job with a return of over 12% on his picks! Very impressive and while it’s early in the year, things are certainly looking up for him.

First off, I’ll start with a review of my 4 picks!

My top pick so far this year has been a name that I discussed in my free newsletter as one of the top dividend stocks out there. The return so far this year has been fairly good although not much has happened to the stock

CTrip has once again been fairly under the radar although it does continue to display strong year over year growth. The stock continues to trade at a reasonable P/E ratio and while i would not call it a “bargain”, I still do think that it’s a good buy and am comfortable with the position. China’s continued growth and the explosion of the middle class will be key of course.

Without a doubt, this is the most surprising result in my opinion. Sure, Amazon commands a decent valuation but to have a company that has such a good year be flat after 3 months is surprising and disappointing. I guess it’s a good opportunity to load up on more stock but in the context of this contest, it is a deception, no doubt.

Pepsi has been active and I think the underlying business continues to look solid and has been expanding its operations abroad including in Russia. The numbers continue to look good and I do beleive that it does remain a more attractive choice than competitor Coca-Cola (KO).

Before ending this post, here are the results of the competition as we start the year in 6th place:

If you liked this post, you can consider subscribing to our free newsletters here

View the original article here

How to Survive a Schizophrenic Stock Market

Today and tomorrow are your very last days to register for our special Squawk Box on Tuesday. (Click here.)

This is the first time we’re inviting the public to join our internal conference call in my company’s 40-year history.

Let me explain …

Never before in history have we seen a
more SCHIZOPHRENIC world!

Overseas, we have much of the world going up in smoke — massive riots in Europe and massive revolutions in the Middle East. But we also have emerging markets that are still growing by leaps and bounds.

In the U.S., we have federal, state and local governments embroiled in the most severe debt crisis in our nation’s 235-year history. But at the same time, we have the Fed printing money like crazy, driving asset prices higher, including U.S. stocks.

And that’s where we see the greatest schizophrenia of all — grossly overvalued stocks set to crash and burn PLUS stocks that offer unusual profit opportunities.

Despite the market’s rally, one thing’s for sure: At a time like this, nobody in their right mind would want to own the weakest stocks in America — the ones that are the MOST vulnerable to a sudden, massive decline!

That’s why I’ve invited you to listen in on our special Squawk Box the day after tomorrow: I have information that’s critical to your financial safety and success and I need to share it with you personally.

It concerns many of the most widely held household-name stocks in America today — stocks that you likely own or have considered buying: Huge national and global companies with a combined market cap of nearly one-half TRILLION DOLLARS.

These are blue-chip S&P 500 stocks in the sectors where YOU likely invest; in energy … food … basic materials … technology … finance … entertainment … and more.

Wall Street’s largest and most widely respected firms — J.P. Morgan … Citibank … Goldman Sachs … and others — may have told you to buy them. You probably own them whether you know it or not — they’re at the top of the list for many mutual funds, ETFs and pension plans.

And yet I have compelling evidence that these stocks are likely to crash and burn, hitting investors for losses of up to 97%.

This proprietary investment intelligence is clearly NOT going to make me any friends on Wall Street. And that’s why I’ve decided to break with all precedents here at Weiss and offer you this special one-time-only invitation: To join us as I name these stocks for our analysts in next Tuesday’s special Squawk Box session.

Until now, these critical Squawk Box sessions have been absolutely private — reserved for Weiss insiders ONLY — and for good reason:

Our analyst conference calls are a critical part of every service my company offers you; absolutely essential to help us help you protect your wealth and profit. The matters we typically discuss are confidential and outsiders have NEVER been allowed to attend before.

But again: The information I have for you now is so urgent — so critical to your financial safety and success — I feel I must make an exception this one time, tailor the session for friends like you, and invite you to join us.

There is no cost for attending this special Squawk Box session. All I ask is that …

FIRST: You let us know you’re coming so we can make the necessary arrangements. Just click this link to R.S.V.P. now. We’ll send your confirmation and instructions for attending by return email.

AND SECOND, show up a bit EARLY next Tuesday — a few minutes BEFORE 12:00 noon Eastern Time; 9:00 AM Pacific Time.

This Squawk Box will begin precisely at noon — and it is absolutely critical that you hear everything that will be presented. Missing anything could prove costly for you.

So once we begin, no additional attendees will be admitted. If you’re even a few seconds late, you will miss this presentation and be unable to act on our recommendations before the market closes.

Remember: Reserving your place is free and takes only a few seconds: Simply click this link to register now!

Good luck and God bless!

Martin

Dr. Weiss began his career in 1971 when he founded Weiss Research, dedicated to evaluating the safety of financial institutions and investments for consulting clients.  He is the publisher and contributing editor of the financial newsletter, Safe Money, known for its track record in picking major turns in interest rates, and serves as co-editor for a number of Premium Services. He is also the author of The Ultimate Safe Money Guide and The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide.

View the original article here

How to Survive a Schizophrenic Stock Market

Today and tomorrow are your very last days to register for our special Squawk Box on Tuesday. (Click here.)

This is the first time we’re inviting the public to join our internal conference call in my company’s 40-year history.

Let me explain …

Never before in history have we seen a
more SCHIZOPHRENIC world!

Overseas, we have much of the world going up in smoke — massive riots in Europe and massive revolutions in the Middle East. But we also have emerging markets that are still growing by leaps and bounds.

In the U.S., we have federal, state and local governments embroiled in the most severe debt crisis in our nation’s 235-year history. But at the same time, we have the Fed printing money like crazy, driving asset prices higher, including U.S. stocks.

And that’s where we see the greatest schizophrenia of all — grossly overvalued stocks set to crash and burn PLUS stocks that offer unusual profit opportunities.

Despite the market’s rally, one thing’s for sure: At a time like this, nobody in their right mind would want to own the weakest stocks in America — the ones that are the MOST vulnerable to a sudden, massive decline!

That’s why I’ve invited you to listen in on our special Squawk Box the day after tomorrow: I have information that’s critical to your financial safety and success and I need to share it with you personally.

It concerns many of the most widely held household-name stocks in America today — stocks that you likely own or have considered buying: Huge national and global companies with a combined market cap of nearly one-half TRILLION DOLLARS.

These are blue-chip S&P 500 stocks in the sectors where YOU likely invest; in energy … food … basic materials … technology … finance … entertainment … and more.

Wall Street’s largest and most widely respected firms — J.P. Morgan … Citibank … Goldman Sachs … and others — may have told you to buy them. You probably own them whether you know it or not — they’re at the top of the list for many mutual funds, ETFs and pension plans.

And yet I have compelling evidence that these stocks are likely to crash and burn, hitting investors for losses of up to 97%.

This proprietary investment intelligence is clearly NOT going to make me any friends on Wall Street. And that’s why I’ve decided to break with all precedents here at Weiss and offer you this special one-time-only invitation: To join us as I name these stocks for our analysts in next Tuesday’s special Squawk Box session.

Until now, these critical Squawk Box sessions have been absolutely private — reserved for Weiss insiders ONLY — and for good reason:

Our analyst conference calls are a critical part of every service my company offers you; absolutely essential to help us help you protect your wealth and profit. The matters we typically discuss are confidential and outsiders have NEVER been allowed to attend before.

But again: The information I have for you now is so urgent — so critical to your financial safety and success — I feel I must make an exception this one time, tailor the session for friends like you, and invite you to join us.

There is no cost for attending this special Squawk Box session. All I ask is that …

FIRST: You let us know you’re coming so we can make the necessary arrangements. Just click this link to R.S.V.P. now. We’ll send your confirmation and instructions for attending by return email.

AND SECOND, show up a bit EARLY next Tuesday — a few minutes BEFORE 12:00 noon Eastern Time; 9:00 AM Pacific Time.

This Squawk Box will begin precisely at noon — and it is absolutely critical that you hear everything that will be presented. Missing anything could prove costly for you.

So once we begin, no additional attendees will be admitted. If you’re even a few seconds late, you will miss this presentation and be unable to act on our recommendations before the market closes.

Remember: Reserving your place is free and takes only a few seconds: Simply click this link to register now!

Good luck and God bless!

Martin

Dr. Weiss began his career in 1971 when he founded Weiss Research, dedicated to evaluating the safety of financial institutions and investments for consulting clients.  He is the publisher and contributing editor of the financial newsletter, Safe Money, known for its track record in picking major turns in interest rates, and serves as co-editor for a number of Premium Services. He is also the author of The Ultimate Safe Money Guide and The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide.

View the original article here

Stock Picks for Obama’s New Energy Policy

President Obama made a speech where he announced a goal of cutting oil imports by a third over the next decade. He included a pledge to have federal agencies buy only alt-fuel vehicles by 2015 and a promise to expand U.S. oil exploration and production.

Transitioning half the cars and trucks in the U.S. to natural gas transportation over the next 5 to 10 years could reduce foreign oil imports by 5 million barrels every day.

So natural gas is an obvious play. Renewable/alternative fuels are other good choices.

Here are my four best picks that could make investors a bundle from  the President’s new policy:

Pick #1—
Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE)

The company owns and/or supplies more than 200 natural gas fueling stations across the U.S. and Canada. It serves over 320 fleet customers operating over 20,000 natural gas vehicles. The customers can use Clean Energy’s fuel stations to tank up their vehicles with compressed natural gas (CNG) or liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Clean Energy Fuels also provides natural gas vehicle systems and conversions for taxis, limousines, vans, pick-up trucks, and shuttle buses through its BAF subsidiary in Texas. Clean Energy helps customers buy and finance natural gas vehicles and obtain government incentives.

The company buys CNG from local utilities and produces LNG at its two plants (in California and Texas) with a combined capacity of 260,000 gallons per day.

Clean Energy owns and operates an LNG liquefaction plant near Houston, Texas, which it calls the Pickens Plant, capable of producing up to 35 million gallons of LNG per year.

And investors who buy CLNE won’t be alone …

Founder and billionaire oilman T. Boone Pickens owns a sizeable chunk of Clean Energy.

Pick #2—
Westport Innovations (WPRT)

This company makes natural gas engines for forklifts, oilfield services engines, trucks and buses and automobiles. Its 50-50 joint venture Cummins Westport project builds natural gas vehicle engines for trucks and buses that could refill at the clean energy stations built by Clean Energy.

It made revenues of $154 million in the last year and isn’t close to profitability yet. But a concerted push toward natural-gas powered vehicles could change that.

WPRT is at the top of its 52-week range. So I’d wait for a pullback.

Advertisement

Pick #3—
Talisman Energy (TLM)

Talisman had 1.4 billion barrels of oil equivalent in reserves last year. It has material positions in three world-class, liquids-heavy shale plays in North America: The Marcellus shale (Pennsylvania), Montney shale (British Columbia) and Utica shale (Quebec). It is also expanding its Eagle Ford shale properties, in a 50-50 joint venture with Statoil.

The company also signed two $1.05 billion deals with Sasol of South Africa. This partnership is sketching out plans for a new multibillion-dollar facility near Edmonton that could process as much as a billion cubic feet of natural gas a day into 96,000 barrels of refined products through the Fischer-Tropsch process.

Fischer-Tropsch works by using heat and chemical catalysts to break down a substance like natural gas into its molecular basics and then rebuild those molecules into something else — such as diesel.

Why do that?

A barrel of oil contains roughly six times the energy content of a thousand cubic feet of gas. Since 6 thousand cubic feet of gas is worth about $24 (U.S.), and one barrel of oil is worth about $100, there is a tremendous profit margin if you can convert one to the other cost-effectively.

Pick #4—
PowerShares Wilderhill
Clean Energy Fund (PBW)

This is one of the largest alternative energy ETFs with over $500 million in assets. Large holdings include GT Solar, Yingli Green Energy, SunPower Corp., Trina Solar and more.

Sean Brodrick is a natural resources expert and editor of Crisis Profit Hunter, a monthly newsletter with a primary mission to help you profit from crisis situations and other dynamic forces affecting the global economy. Commodities and dividend-paying stocks are central to his approach, and he also delivers practical advice for uncertain economic times. For more information on Crisis Profit Hunter, click here.

Sean is also the editor of Red-Hot Global Resources, a weekly newsletter that aims to help you rack up profits with commodity-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and natural resource-sensitive stocks that operate around the world. For more information on Red-Hot Global Resources, click here.

View the original article here

Stock Picks for Obama’s New Energy Policy

President Obama made a speech where he announced a goal of cutting oil imports by a third over the next decade. He included a pledge to have federal agencies buy only alt-fuel vehicles by 2015 and a promise to expand U.S. oil exploration and production.

Transitioning half the cars and trucks in the U.S. to natural gas transportation over the next 5 to 10 years could reduce foreign oil imports by 5 million barrels every day.

So natural gas is an obvious play. Renewable/alternative fuels are other good choices.

Here are my four best picks that could make investors a bundle from  the President’s new policy:

Pick #1—
Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE)

The company owns and/or supplies more than 200 natural gas fueling stations across the U.S. and Canada. It serves over 320 fleet customers operating over 20,000 natural gas vehicles. The customers can use Clean Energy’s fuel stations to tank up their vehicles with compressed natural gas (CNG) or liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Clean Energy Fuels also provides natural gas vehicle systems and conversions for taxis, limousines, vans, pick-up trucks, and shuttle buses through its BAF subsidiary in Texas. Clean Energy helps customers buy and finance natural gas vehicles and obtain government incentives.

The company buys CNG from local utilities and produces LNG at its two plants (in California and Texas) with a combined capacity of 260,000 gallons per day.

Clean Energy owns and operates an LNG liquefaction plant near Houston, Texas, which it calls the Pickens Plant, capable of producing up to 35 million gallons of LNG per year.

And investors who buy CLNE won’t be alone …

Founder and billionaire oilman T. Boone Pickens owns a sizeable chunk of Clean Energy.

Pick #2—
Westport Innovations (WPRT)

This company makes natural gas engines for forklifts, oilfield services engines, trucks and buses and automobiles. Its 50-50 joint venture Cummins Westport project builds natural gas vehicle engines for trucks and buses that could refill at the clean energy stations built by Clean Energy.

It made revenues of $154 million in the last year and isn’t close to profitability yet. But a concerted push toward natural-gas powered vehicles could change that.

WPRT is at the top of its 52-week range. So I’d wait for a pullback.

Advertisement

Pick #3—
Talisman Energy (TLM)

Talisman had 1.4 billion barrels of oil equivalent in reserves last year. It has material positions in three world-class, liquids-heavy shale plays in North America: The Marcellus shale (Pennsylvania), Montney shale (British Columbia) and Utica shale (Quebec). It is also expanding its Eagle Ford shale properties, in a 50-50 joint venture with Statoil.

The company also signed two $1.05 billion deals with Sasol of South Africa. This partnership is sketching out plans for a new multibillion-dollar facility near Edmonton that could process as much as a billion cubic feet of natural gas a day into 96,000 barrels of refined products through the Fischer-Tropsch process.

Fischer-Tropsch works by using heat and chemical catalysts to break down a substance like natural gas into its molecular basics and then rebuild those molecules into something else — such as diesel.

Why do that?

A barrel of oil contains roughly six times the energy content of a thousand cubic feet of gas. Since 6 thousand cubic feet of gas is worth about $24 (U.S.), and one barrel of oil is worth about $100, there is a tremendous profit margin if you can convert one to the other cost-effectively.

Pick #4—
PowerShares Wilderhill
Clean Energy Fund (PBW)

This is one of the largest alternative energy ETFs with over $500 million in assets. Large holdings include GT Solar, Yingli Green Energy, SunPower Corp., Trina Solar and more.

Sean Brodrick is a natural resources expert and editor of Crisis Profit Hunter, a monthly newsletter with a primary mission to help you profit from crisis situations and other dynamic forces affecting the global economy. Commodities and dividend-paying stocks are central to his approach, and he also delivers practical advice for uncertain economic times. For more information on Crisis Profit Hunter, click here.

Sean is also the editor of Red-Hot Global Resources, a weekly newsletter that aims to help you rack up profits with commodity-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and natural resource-sensitive stocks that operate around the world. For more information on Red-Hot Global Resources, click here.

View the original article here

The Best Stock Market Advice I Know: Get Ahead of the Business Cycle

By Mitchell Clark, B.Comm.

 

The timing isn’t quite right yet, but, in the not-too-distant future, there should be a reacceleration of U.S.-listed Chinese stocks. If you’ve been a speculator in these stocks, you’ll know that it’s been tough going. The entire group has been suffering from a lack of investor confidence and a lot of this sentiment is warranted. There remain, however, many very good companies out there whose stock prices have fallen along with the group and that are now excellent values in my view. I think we’re very close to achieving extreme pricing (on the downside) with many of these stocks and speculators should be putting a number of these stocks on their radar screens.

If you watch the stock market long enough, you’ll know that certain sectors experience waves of enthusiasm from investors. It’s like the latest trend in the fashion industry, only the business cycle in stocks changes extremely fast. One year, the darling of the market is solar energy stocks. The next year, silver stocks are soaring. The whole system in my view is about perpetual rolling interest from investors on the Street and getting ahead of these trends is the single most important contributor to making big money in the stock market. It’s not even about owning the right individual stocks at the right time; it’s about owning the right sector. Share prices move in groups and Wall Street takes no prisoners. The stock market isn’t a perfect system and valuations are always relative, but with so many participants on the long and short sides of the marketplace, prices are never true for long.

Stock picking has always been and always will be a difficult endeavor to get right on a consistent basis. Even in a bull market, it’s difficult to make money as a speculator, because sentiment changes so quickly and so do stock prices. One unfulfilled expectation and a stock’s price can be cut in half—in a matter of minutes! If stock picking were easy, there would be a lot more retired stock traders living on your street. Even Wall Street pros don’t last in the game for very long. Most investment banks make a lot more money selling you advice than trading stocks for themselves.

The one thing I’ve learned over the years is never to fight the market. The action is the action. It might not be rational; it might not even be fair. But the stock market is a system that is based on fear and greed, and emotions have more to do with prices than anything else. A big investor like Warren Buffett worries almost solely about valuation, because he is buying an entire company’s cash flow, not just a share. For equity investors (speculators more appropriately), a stock’s valuation is more about perception than anything. Understanding the market’s prevailing psychology usually wins out over the most stringent of analyses.

Right now, there are several sectors in the equity universe that are not participating in the current rally. If you’re a buy-low/sell-high kind of speculator, now is the time to be looking seriously. Here’s what my favorite stock picker likes to do (Jim Rogers); he waits for securities to achieve price extremes, then he makes his bets.

Mitchell is a Senior Editor at Lombardi Financial specializing in small-cap stocks. He’s the editor of a variety of popular Lombardi Financial newsletters, such as Penny Stock Reporter, Micro-Cap Stocks, and Monster Profits. Mitchell, who has been with Lombardi Financial for thirteen years, won the Jack Madden Prize in economic history and is a long-time student of equity markets. Prior to joining Lombardi, Mitchell was as a stock broker for a large investment bank. While Mitchell is not working he enjoys fly fishing, motorcycling and tending to his hobby farm.Tweet

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The Best Stock Market Advice I Know: Get Ahead of the Business Cycle

By Mitchell Clark, B.Comm.

 

The timing isn’t quite right yet, but, in the not-too-distant future, there should be a reacceleration of U.S.-listed Chinese stocks. If you’ve been a speculator in these stocks, you’ll know that it’s been tough going. The entire group has been suffering from a lack of investor confidence and a lot of this sentiment is warranted. There remain, however, many very good companies out there whose stock prices have fallen along with the group and that are now excellent values in my view. I think we’re very close to achieving extreme pricing (on the downside) with many of these stocks and speculators should be putting a number of these stocks on their radar screens.

If you watch the stock market long enough, you’ll know that certain sectors experience waves of enthusiasm from investors. It’s like the latest trend in the fashion industry, only the business cycle in stocks changes extremely fast. One year, the darling of the market is solar energy stocks. The next year, silver stocks are soaring. The whole system in my view is about perpetual rolling interest from investors on the Street and getting ahead of these trends is the single most important contributor to making big money in the stock market. It’s not even about owning the right individual stocks at the right time; it’s about owning the right sector. Share prices move in groups and Wall Street takes no prisoners. The stock market isn’t a perfect system and valuations are always relative, but with so many participants on the long and short sides of the marketplace, prices are never true for long.

Stock picking has always been and always will be a difficult endeavor to get right on a consistent basis. Even in a bull market, it’s difficult to make money as a speculator, because sentiment changes so quickly and so do stock prices. One unfulfilled expectation and a stock’s price can be cut in half—in a matter of minutes! If stock picking were easy, there would be a lot more retired stock traders living on your street. Even Wall Street pros don’t last in the game for very long. Most investment banks make a lot more money selling you advice than trading stocks for themselves.

The one thing I’ve learned over the years is never to fight the market. The action is the action. It might not be rational; it might not even be fair. But the stock market is a system that is based on fear and greed, and emotions have more to do with prices than anything else. A big investor like Warren Buffett worries almost solely about valuation, because he is buying an entire company’s cash flow, not just a share. For equity investors (speculators more appropriately), a stock’s valuation is more about perception than anything. Understanding the market’s prevailing psychology usually wins out over the most stringent of analyses.

Right now, there are several sectors in the equity universe that are not participating in the current rally. If you’re a buy-low/sell-high kind of speculator, now is the time to be looking seriously. Here’s what my favorite stock picker likes to do (Jim Rogers); he waits for securities to achieve price extremes, then he makes his bets.

Mitchell is a Senior Editor at Lombardi Financial specializing in small-cap stocks. He’s the editor of a variety of popular Lombardi Financial newsletters, such as Penny Stock Reporter, Micro-Cap Stocks, and Monster Profits. Mitchell, who has been with Lombardi Financial for thirteen years, won the Jack Madden Prize in economic history and is a long-time student of equity markets. Prior to joining Lombardi, Mitchell was as a stock broker for a large investment bank. While Mitchell is not working he enjoys fly fishing, motorcycling and tending to his hobby farm.Tweet

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Stock Market: Two Biggest Fears Getting Closer

The stock markets remind me of the real estate market in Toronto, Canada. While the U.S. housing market crashed, the real estate market in Toronto is as strong as it has ever been.

In fact, builders can’t find enough lots to build homes on and developers can’t put condo buildings up fast enough in Toronto. In decent areas, the prices of condos have gone up from $400.00 per square foot to well over $1,000 per square foot and buyers are lining up.

Same thing with the stock market: There are so many people out there saying “It’s overpriced,” but stocks just keep rising. Why? Simply, stocks keep rising because there is too much money around, too much liquidity in the system. I can’t see the Fed doing much else other than dropping money from helicopters to increase monetary stimulus. With so much liquidity around, stocks rise.

The S&P 500 companies alone sit on about $1.0 trillion in cash. Stock markets do not fall when with so much cash in the system.

But here is when stock markets do fall: when inflation rears its ugly head, and when interest rates rise.

My dear friend, neither of these two events is far off. All we need to do is look at the bellwether 10-year U.S. Treasury. Last October, the 10-year Treasury yielded 2.4%. Today, despite the crisis we have witnessed in Japan, which should have sent investors running to the security of U.S. bonds, the 10-year Treasury yields 3.4%, up 41% in less than six months. In fact, this bond is up drastically in the last three trading days.

Yes, stocks will continue to rise in the very immediate term, just like the condo and housing market in Toronto. But the warning signs of trouble ahead are getting clearer every passing day. Enjoy the bear market rally while it lasts, because it won’t last forever.

Michael’s Personal Notes:

It is with sadness that we learn this morning about the bankruptcy filing of Harry & David, the gourmet food and fruit basket purveyor.

Each year I look forward to getting Harry & David gift baskets from our various suppliers. I was an especially big fan of their fruit baskets; their jumbo pears being my favorite.

The stark reality today is that, unless you have a sizeable Internet presence, the old traditional mail-order model will no longer work. The U.S. Post Office continues to adopt the wrong model of raising its prices as it fights the Internet.

Harry & David was established around the time of the great depression: 1934. The business thrived as the decades passed (assets of $500 million today), but it was unable to really get the following that other merchandise companies have enjoyed on the Internet. According to compete.com, Harry and David’s monthly web site traffic was less than one percent of the traffic of Amazon.com.

Where the Market Stands; Where it’s Headed:

Not much I can say about the stock market that I already haven’t talked about. We opened Caesar’s most dreaded month of the year at about the same level that stocks are about to end the month, in spite of the Japan disaster and continued lack of focus by the politicians on curbing government spending.

The bear market rally in stocks, which started in March 2009, continues.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average opens this morning up 5.5% for 2011.

What He Said:

“The proof the party is over in the U.S. housing market could not be clearer to me. The price action of the new-homebuilder stocks is telling the true story—these stocks are falling in price daily (and the media is not picking it up). Those who will hurt most when the air is finally let out of the housing market balloon will be those buyers who bought in late 2005. In fact, the latecomers to the U.S. housing market may end up looking like the latecomers to the tech-stock rally that ended so abruptly in 1999.” Michael Lombardi in PROFIT CONFIDENTIAL, March 1, 2006. Michael started warning about the crisis coming in the U.S. real estate market right at the peak of the boom, now widely believed to be 2005.

Michael bought his first stock when he was 17 years old. He quickly saw $2,000 of savings from summer jobs turn into $1,000. Determined not to lose money again on a stock, Michael started researching the market intensely, reading every book he could find on the topic and taking every course he could afford. It didn’t take long for Michael to start making money with stocks, and that led Michael to launch a newsletter on the stock market. Today, Michael only employs the top market analysts and editors. Some of our recommendations have posted gains in excess of 500%! Michael has authored and published over one thousand articles on investment and money management. Along the way to building Lombardi Publishing Corporation, now with over one million customers in 141 countries, Michael became an active investor in real estate, art, precious metals and various businesses. Readers of the daily Profit Confidential e-letter are offered the benefit of the expertise Michael has gained in these sectors. Michael believes in successful stock picking as an important wealth accumulation tool. Married with two children, Michael received his Chartered Financial Planner designation from the Financial Planners Standards Council of Canada and his MBA from the Graduate Business School, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland. Follow Michael and the latest from Profit Confidential on Twitter

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Why I Think Economic Growth & Stock Prices Are Going Up

Change is in the air, and it’s happening all around. There is growing expectation that both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank will soon raise their benchmark interest rates. The inflation rate in the U.K. just hit 4.4% in February, which is more than double the central bank’s annualized target of two percent. Higher oil prices aren’t helping the situation and you can bet that, over the coming quarters, there will be increasing pressure on central banks around the world to raise interest rates. The interest rate cycle has already begun to reverse.

In almost all occasions, higher interest rates for borrowing don’t help the economy. In this particular situation, however, increased rates won’t necessarily hurt economic growth. Because we’re coming from a base of rates at record lows, businesses and consumers can handle an increase of point or two. A modest rise in short-term interest rates isn’t going to hurt an already lackluster housing market.

The other big change that’s in the air for investors is the upcoming earnings reporting season. Because of the shocks from Japan and Libya, the market hasn’t run up in anticipation of the numbers. I think we’re going to get strong earnings, especially from large corporations that continue to increase their selling prices. This pricing action goes right to the bottom line and all indications are for a strong first quarter.

If you think about all the shocks that financial markets have had to deal with over the last few months, you might agree with me that equities have held up exceptionally well. The one thing that investors don’t like is uncertainty. So far this year, we’ve had a regime change in Egypt, major civil protests in other big oil-producing countries, battles in Libya, record-high prices for food and precious metals, and a catastrophic earthquake in the world’s third largest economy. Yet, the S&P 500 Index is only about 45 points from its 52-week and three-year highs. This to me is exceptional, and it makes me think that stock prices could go a lot higher this year.

Goldman Sachs is predicting that the world economy will grow by about 4.8% this year. JPMorgan Chase expects 4.4%. According to Bloomberg, the average global growth rate over the last 20 years is around 3.4%.

Now, as we all know from history, economic booms (in Western countries) tend to follow cataclysmic events like war and natural disasters. As the world’s third largest economy, Japan has to engage in a multi-year rebuild that will be the cause of much higher than normal domestic economic stimulus. This unforeseen economic spending could have quite a positive effect on the global economy (lumber stocks remain strong) and will only add to overall growth rates.

So, from my perspective, the outlook for both the domestic economy and the stock market continues to improve. The one certainty I do know going forward is that there will be increasing pressure on interest rates. Right now, the stock market and the economy can handle this eventuality.

Mitchell is a Senior Editor at Lombardi Financial specializing in small-cap stocks. He’s the editor of a variety of popular Lombardi Financial newsletters, such as Penny Stock Reporter, Micro-Cap Stocks, and Monster Profits. Mitchell, who has been with Lombardi Financial for thirteen years, won the Jack Madden Prize in economic history and is a long-time student of equity markets. Prior to joining Lombardi, Mitchell was as a stock broker for a large investment bank. While Mitchell is not working he enjoys fly fishing, motorcycling and tending to his hobby farm.

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The Stock Market: What’s Really Happening with It

My take on what happens in the financial markets and what you hear from reporters and see in the media are two very different things. I guess you know that or otherwise you would not be reading my column.

The facts are the facts. Since the crisis in Japan hit a week ago, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen 3.2%. But if we look closer, we see that North American stock markets started declining back on February 18, 2011—that’s when the Dow Jones hit a new record high for the bear market rally.

My opinion is that profit-taking (who can blame investors, stocks were up almost 100% since March 2009) was already underway. The earthquake in Japan accelerated the decline in stock prices not because of the damage to the Japanese economy, but for very different reasons:

The stock market has adjusted itself lower in the expectation that Japanese investors will pull funds out of North American stock markets and bond markets, as money is repatriated back to Japan to help pay for rebuilding the country’s devastated regions.

When the Kobe earthquake of 1995 hit, Japanese investors sold $30.0 billion in U.S. securities in the aftermath of that natural disaster. Depending on which news report you believe, the damage in Japan from last Friday’s earthquake is pegged at over $200 billion.

Japan is the second largest holder of U.S. Treasuries, second only to China. Japan holds about $886 billion in U.S. Treasuries (Source: “Rising yen adds to Japan’s woes,” Globe & Mail Mar.17, 2011). If Japan stops buying our debt because their needs have changed, and they start selling U.S. securities to bring money home for rebuilding the country, the ramifications in the U.S. will be higher interest rates.

Add to this the Federal Reserve’s comments earlier this week that they will not expand their $600-billion QE2 bond purchases, and one needs to seriously ask: if Japan will reduce its buying of U.S. Treasuries and the Fed will not continue buying them, who will buy the U.S. Treasuries we so desperately need to sell in order to finance our debt?

In light of the above events, it’s a wonder that the stock market has held up so well over the past week.

Michael’s Personal Notes:

I tried to buy more gold-related investments yesterday like I did on Tuesday, but gold prices started to rise Wednesday and they are continuing to rise this morning. Hence, I’ll sit tight for now. Hopefully we will see some more weakness in the precious metal prices, which I would view as a buying opportunity.

For those readers who follow technical analysis, my charts show good support for gold at $1,340 an ounce, about $60.00 below where it is trading today. I would be a buyer of more gold-related investments on any pullback towards $1,340 an ounce; unfortunately, this may not happen. Over the past 12 months, gold bullion is up $273.00 an ounce.

No bull market goes up in a straight line; no bear market goes down in a straight line. The bull market in gold is no exception. Since 2002-2003, I’ve followed a policy of buying gold-related investments on gold price pullbacks.

Where the Market Stands; Where it’s Headed:

Okay, Michael; what’s it going to take for you say that the bear market rally in stocks is over?

Technically speaking, the low point for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 6,440 on March 9, 2009, when the bear market started. The high point was 12,391 on February 18, 2011. The mid-point between the high and low is 9,415. The bear market rally in stocks would have to break below 9,415 to be officially over. This morning, the Dow Jones Industrial Average trades at 11,613.

Whether you call it an overreaction to the Japan crisis or simple profit-taking, the stock market is obviously taking a breather. But until the market proves me otherwise, I see the bear market rally in stocks that started in March 2009 as still in force.

Bear market rallies usually end in the midst of investor euphoria. We haven’t seen that yet.

What He Said:

“Why Google stock will go higher: Most investors in Google, surprisingly, are retail investors. And that’s why the stock can go higher—because only 20% of the stock is owned by institutions. If the institutions jump in and buy Google, the stock will certainly move higher.” Michael Lombardi, PROFIT CONFIDENTIAL, June 2, 2005. Michael recommended Google stock as a buy on June 2, 2005, when the stock was trading at $288.00. On November 5, 2007, when Google reached $700.00 U.S. per share, Michael advised his readers to sell their Google stock and to put the proceeds into gold-related investments. Coincidently, gold bullion was also trading at about $700.00 per ounce in November 2007. Michael’s message was to trade each $700.00 share of Google into $700.00 of gold, because he saw gold as a much better investment.

Michael bought his first stock when he was 17 years old. He quickly saw $2,000 of savings from summer jobs turn into $1,000. Determined not to lose money again on a stock, Michael started researching the market intensely, reading every book he could find on the topic and taking every course he could afford. It didn’t take long for Michael to start making money with stocks, and that led Michael to launch a newsletter on the stock market. Today, Michael only employs the top market analysts and editors. Some of our recommendations have posted gains in excess of 500%! Michael has authored and published over one thousand articles on investment and money management. Along the way to building Lombardi Publishing Corporation, now with over one million customers in 141 countries, Michael became an active investor in real estate, art, precious metals and various businesses. Readers of the daily Profit Confidential e-letter are offered the benefit of the expertise Michael has gained in these sectors. Michael believes in successful stock picking as an important wealth accumulation tool. Married with two children, Michael received his Chartered Financial Planner designation from the Financial Planners Standards Council of Canada and his MBA from the Graduate Business School, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland. Follow Michael and the latest from Profit Confidential on Twitter

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Coming Stock Market Correction: What Could Be the Best Indicator Yet

Everything is due for a correction now: stocks, commodities, and several currencies. The stock market isn’t overvalued; it’s just had a great run and a correction would be healthy. In addition, the majority of the world’s commodities have also been in a bull market and they too are due for a correction.

Just because one’s economic analysis suggests that a correction would be healthy for the long-run action in stocks and commodities doesn’t mean it’s going to happen. If the S&P 500 Index pulled back 15% from its current level, I’d be a new buyer. If the price of gold retreated to $1,200 an ounce, I’d be a new buyer of gold stocks—a lot of them. From my perspective, the price trend is still up for both stocks and commodities. I’d like to see a correction in a number of markets, because I don’t like seeing securities go up in value like they’re following a straight line. I also would like a more attractive entry point for considering new positions.

If there was a pronounced correction in precious metal prices, I would seriously consider investing in gold and silver in a very meaningful way. I would take on new positions in intermediate producers as well as several juniors. I’d also own a gold fund or ETF that actually holds physical gold and silver bars in a vault. With all the risks out there (e.g. sovereign debt defaults, war, inflation, higher interest rates, housing prices, and unemployment), gold is a must-have asset. Perhaps for the rest of this decade.

Wall Street analysts and investment newsletters have been quite bullish since the beginning of fourth-quarter earnings season. Some see this as a sign that the current bear market rally is coming to an end. I don’t know what’s going to happen to stock prices, but my view is that it’s probable that the S&P 500 Index will keep ticking higher this year. My prediction is 1,500 on the index, as you know.

There’s a lot of risk out there that could sap global investor confidence and I think this is why a lot of individual investors are still sitting on the sidelines, not participating in equities in the way they were before. Individual investor confidence was decimated during the subprime financial crisis and the broader stock market still hasn’t recovered from the previous bubble in the technology sector. So, you have a situation where most of the market is being played by professional investors or speculators. This makes the price moves more pronounced and it almost removes a level of rationality from the marketplace, because all the action is with a short-term time horizon for making money.

It’s important for equity investors to keep listening to what large corporations say about their operations. It’s also very important for equity investors to follow the Dow Jones Transportation Average. This index is teetering on breaking down and it may be the best indicator yet for an upcoming stock market correction.

Mitchell is a Senior Editor at Lombardi Financial specializing in small-cap stocks. He’s the editor of a variety of popular Lombardi Financial newsletters, such as Penny Stock Reporter, Micro-Cap Stocks, and Monster Profits. Mitchell, who has been with Lombardi Financial for thirteen years, won the Jack Madden Prize in economic history and is a long-time student of equity markets. Prior to joining Lombardi, Mitchell was as a stock broker for a large investment bank. While Mitchell is not working he enjoys fly fishing, motorcycling and tending to his hobby farm.

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Silver stock gains: 104%, 275%, 720%! What to do …

In the last 12 months alone, select silver stocks have surged by 104%, 275%, even 720%! (More details in a moment.)

These opportunities are so remarkable, I’ve taken some unusual steps to make sure you don’t miss out on the next ones:

First, I’ve just recorded a brand NEW video, focusing on ANOTHER one of my favorite silver stocks, which has NOT YET made its big move.

Second, today starts my three-day sprint at the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) conference, one of the world’s great Super Bowls of mining.

I’ll have a first-hand look at the movers, shakers and power players who will be making those deals …

I’ll be talking to the CEOs, geologists and chief engineers of some excellent, little-known companies …

And I’ll be putting together my list of the next great companies I want to buy — most of which I’ve already inspected in the field.

The timing couldn’t be better:

The price of silver has shot up 108% from the start of 2010. In the past six months, the value of the white metal has jumped nearly 80%, to more than $34 an ounce from around $19 an ounce. In the last month alone, its price has increased nearly 23%.

Wow!

Look. The mood in Toronto is positively electric, and for good reason. Just look how much precious metals stocks have soared in the past year:

Gabriel Resources is up 104.5% … Cangold is up 125% … Hinterland Metal is up 150% … Mirasol Resource is up 184.1% … St. Eugene Mining is up 227.3% … U.S. Silver is up 275.8% … Silver Sun Resources is up 338.9% …

Plus …

Silver Mines LTD is up 449.3% … Sabina Gold & Silver is up 484.8% … Arian Silver is up 679.6% … and Huldra Silver is up a mind-boggling 720%.

All in just 12 short months!

So be sure to watch your inbox for my dispatches from this landmark mining conference.

In the meantime, if you want an advance peek at THREE of my current favorites, you really MUST to see my new video which I just posted to the web yesterday.

Turn up your computer speakers and click this link to view it now!

Yours for trading profits,

Sean Brodrick

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Don’t Worry, Be Happy: Unemployment Is Down, The Stock Market Is Up And The Economy Is Going To Be Just Fine

Haven't you heard?  The coming economic collapse has officially been canceled.  The U.S. economy is in full recovery mode.  It has just been announced that the U.S. unemployment rate fell to 8.9% in February.  That was the third monthly decline in a row.  192,000 new jobs were created in the U.S. during February.  That was the fifth month in a row in which the U.S. economy has gained jobs.  Corporate profits are way up.  For the most recent month that numbers are available, sales of GM vehicles were up 49%, sales of Chrysler vehicles were up 13%, and sales of Ford vehicles were up 10%.  Can't you see?  The great American economic machine has roared back to life.  The stock market is way up this year.  The recession is over.  Our financial system is more stable than ever.  Pretty soon all Americans that want jobs are going to be able to get jobs and all of our government debts are going to be paid off.  The greatest days for the U.S. economy are just around the corner.  So don't worry, be happy.

Don't worry, be happy - the U.S. unemployment rate is falling and it will continue to fall.  Don't be concerned that according to Gallup, the U.S. unemployment rate actually rose to 10.3% at the end of February.  Everyone knows that U.S. government numbers are far more accurate than the numbers that Gallup puts out.  Just don't pay any attention to the "doom and gloomers" and just keep on watching American Idol.  Very soon there will be plenty of jobs for everyone.

Don't worry, be happy - globalism is doing wonderful things for the U.S. economy.  Just look at all the incredibly cheap products from foreign nations such as China that are available in our stores.  Do you think that all of this stuff would be so cheap if we didn't have free trade?  We may have a massive "trade imbalance" right now, but this is just temporary as we transition over to a one world economy.  The job losses may look bad right now, but once our wage levels go down low enough we will be able to export more stuff to the rest of the world.  So don't be alarmed when the "protectionists" tell you that between December 2000 and December 2010, 38 percent of the manufacturing jobs in Ohio were lost, 42 percent of the manufacturing jobs in North Carolina were lost and 48 percent of the manufacturing jobs in Michigan were lost.  Those workers just need to get more "education" so that they can be competitive in today's global economy.  And please don't listen to people like Alan Blinder, an economist at Princeton, who is projecting that offshoring will ulti­mately affect up to 40 million American jobs.  The truth is that there are many jobs that simply cannot be outsourced.  For example, workers over in China and India will never be able to flip the burgers that need flipping here in the United States and they will never be able to welcome people to your local Wal-Marts.

Don't worry, be happy - the fact that the number of Americans on food stamps has set another new all-time high (44 million) is just an indication that more Americans are learning how to use government services.  At some point this number will start to go down as the U.S. economy roars back to life.

Don't worry, be happy - the fact that new home sales in the United States have been setting record lows just means that the only direction they have to go is up.  As the employment situation continues to brighten, it is inevitable that the housing industry in the U.S. will surge to greater heights than ever before.

Don't worry, be happy - the fact that so many Americans are going back to work means that lots of additional tax money will soon be pouring into the coffers of state and local governments.  In Idaho, Boise County has just declared bankruptcy, but that is just an isolated incident.  We shouldn't be seeing too many more local governments default on their debts.

Don't worry, be happy - the economic improvement that we are seeing right now will soon mean that the austerity measures being implemented across the United States will soon come to an end.  Yes, times have been tough in many communities lately.  The following is an excerpt from a recent New York Times article that describes the brutal austerity that has been implemented in Vallejo, California....

Vallejo is still in bankruptcy. The police force has shrunk from 153 officers to 92. Calls for any but the most serious crimes go unanswered. Residents who complain about prostitutes or vandals are told to fill out a form. Three of the city’s firehouses were closed. Last summer, a fire ravaged a house in one of the city’s better neighborhoods; one of the firetrucks came from another town, 15 miles away. Is this America’s future?

Sadly, that article in the New York Times was far too negative.  The truth is that things are starting to turn around.  Soon our cities and towns will be more prosperous than ever and all of this "austerity" will just be a bad memory.  It is only a matter of time.

Don't worry, be happy - Barack Obama has announced a great plan for reducing the federal budget deficit.  As the U.S. economy grows at a 5 or 6 percent pace for the rest of the decade the budget deficit is going to just keep on shrinking.  Thanks to Obama, our budget deficit will be reduced to 607 billion dollars by 2015.  Obama's policies are going to lead to much greater financial strength for the U.S. government.  Those that are warning that the U.S. government cannot handle this much debt simply do not understand history.  As a percentage of GDP, our debt really isn't that bad.  When analyst Mary Meeker recently told BusinessWeek that the U.S. government has a "net worth of a negative $44 trillion" she was just exaggerating the situation.  The truth is that the U.S. government is on really solid ground financially.

Don't worry, be happy - the price of oil cannot possibly stay this high.  Yes, U.S. crude rose to $104 a barrel today, but that is just because of the crisis in Libya.  The American people are just going to have to deal with higher gas prices for a few weeks.  ABC News is reporting that regular unleaded is selling for $5.29 a gallon at one gas station in Orlando, Florida.  But of course that won't last for too long.  Things will get back to normal soon.

Surely Barack Obama and his crack team of national security experts are on the verge of solving the crisis in Libya even as we speak.  With incredibly competent diplomatic professionals such as Hillary Clinton on the job, it is only a matter of time until the chaos in the Middle East comes to an end.

The peace and stability that the Obama administration is going to bring to the Middle East is going to drive oil prices back down.  So please don't worry - you will probably be paying 2 dollars for a gallon of gasoline by Christmas.  The price of oil is not going to set a new record high and it is not going to cause another financial panic like we witnessed back in 2008.

Everything is going to be okay.  Please do not listen to any of the "doom and gloomers", the "gold bugs", the "protectionists", the "armchair economists" or the "conspiracy theorists".  Do you think that they know more than the highly educated experts in the Obama administration, the highly educated experts running the Federal Reserve or the highly educated experts on the mainstream media?

Yes, we have had some "glitches" in the economy recently, but very competent people are very busy fixing all of those problems.  So instead of being obsessed with our "economic problems", you should just relax and have some fun.  Baseball season is getting ready to start and all month fantasy baseball leagues are going to be forming.  Now is a great time to join one.  A new season of Dancing With The Stars is going to begin shortly, and this cast looks like the best one yet.  Jennifer Lopez and Steven Tyler have been wonderful additions to American Idol this season.  Did you see the dramatic unveiling of the "final 13" on Idol the other night?  It was great television.  A new Matt Damon has just come out and Justin Bieber just got a new haircut.  Life in America is good.

Many of you already have to work two or three jobs just to pay the bills.  Why spend your precious free time reading websites like The American Dream which will just get you all riled up about the state of the economy for no reason whatsoever?

There is nothing to worry about.

Everything is under control.

Don't worry, just be happy.




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