Unmanipulated US "Misery Index" Hits All Time High

While everyone knows that the CPI in the US is manipulated beyond repair (a topic far too broad to be discussed here suffice to say that as disclosed previously true inflation in the US is currently runrating at over 8%), inflation as actually represented by US consumers and reported by Zero Hedge earlier, in the form of the 1 year inflation expectation index of the Conference Board lack of confidence index, is near all time highs. So if one takes this data series and adds to it the narrow unemployment definition (U3) one would get an adjusted Misery Index for US citizens (using inflation expectations instead of manipulated CPI). As the chart below shows, the Misery Index, which is merely inflation plus unemployment, constructed as such, would now be at an all time high. Hardly in keeping with Bernanke's wealth effect prerogative, but surely in line with record food stamp usage reported month after month. That said, the silver lining to that particular mushroom cloud is our confidence that as the bulk of Americans live in record "misery", they will be comforted to know that their 20 shares of NFLX are trading at a four digit EPS multiple. And the other good news is that we have the Brits beat again: whereas the US is at a record, the UK is merely at a 20 year high, proving once again that only the US never does anything half-assed.

h/t John Lohman

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Macroecomia, CESI ed ECRI Index: ma se poi capita ciò che non ti aspetti…

La settimana scorsa il post su ECRI Index e CESI Index era intitolato: attenzione alla correzione.

Ovviamente non potevo sapere dei disastri nipponici (terremoto, tsunami e reattori in tilt delle centrali atomiche). Sembra quasi una magia, ma già la settimana scorsa era evidente la possibilità di correzioni in arrivo.
E così è stato. Lasciamo perdere il passato e fiondiamoci sul futuro.
Oggi è stato il giorno dell’ECRI Index, ieri dell’indice sulla fiducia dei consumatori.
E quindi…rieccoci qui col nostro super grafico macroeconomico.

Come sempre troverete:

-ECRI Index (bianco)
-SP 500 (arancio)
-CESI Index USA (indice previsionale crescita economica USA, in verde)
-BFCIUS (indice fiducia finanziaria USA edito da Bloomberg, in giallo)
-SLF (indice St Louis FED sullo stress del sistema bancario, in rosso)
-COMFCOMF (indice fiducia consumatori, in azzurro)

Potete notare che l’ECRI Index, non si cura assolutamente di quanto accade nel mondo e continua a salire…possibile che sia tutto così sereno?

March 18 (Bloomberg) — ECRI weekly leading indicators rose a 7th week in latest week (ended March 11), were above 0 for a 13th week, and advanced for the 26th week out of the past 27 (dipped in week ended Jan. 21 for 1st time since August).

Di parere opposto il CESI Index, l’indice previsionale giornaliero macroeconomico, che è nuovamente negativo. E a supporto di tutto ciò guardate l’indice della fiducia dei consumatori, il CCI alias Bloomberg Weekly Consumer Comfort Index. Un bel capitombolo in basso.

March 17 (Bloomberg) –The CCI (Consumer Comfort Index) is reported in a four-week rolling average; this week’s results are based on telephone interviews among a random national sample of 1,000 adults in the four weeks ending March 13. The results have a 3-point error margin. Field work by SSRS/Social Science Research Solutions of Media, Pa.

The index is derived by subtracting the negative response to each index question from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.

Survey questions:
Would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor? Would you describe the state of your own personal finances these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor? Considering the cost of things today and your own personal finances, would you say now is an excellent time, a good time, a not so good time or a poor time to buy the things you want and need?

Nel frattempo lo Spoore è sotto 1300, dal Giappone arrivano notizie contrastati e nella vicina Libia non sappiamo cosa potrà accadere. Spesso ci danniamo l’anima per prevedere, analizzare, scommettere, anticipare e interpretare il mercato. Ma poi dobbiamo renderci conto che ci sono cose molto più imprevedibili ed importanti nella vita. Speriamo che in questo week end non capiti nulla… Intanto…BUON WEEK END!!!

STAY TUNED!

DT

Sostieni I&M!
Clicca sul bottone ”DONAZIONE” qui sotto o a fianco nella colonna di destra!

Macroecomia, CESI ed ECRI Index: ma se poi capita ciò che non ti aspetti…, 5.0 out of 5 based on 1 rating Fiducia ed economia volano: ECRI Index e CESI IndexCESI vs ECRI: attenzione alla correzioneECRI WLI Index e Consumer Metrics Institute Growth IndexECRI Weekly Economic Leading Index UpdateECRI Weekly Economic Leading Index

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Misery Index : Reaches New All Time High

Oh dear. Unemployment rose by 27,000 in the three months to the end of January to 2.53 million, the highest since 1994. The jobless rate is now 8%. The Misery Index is taken from the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics and incorporates inflation and unemployment as well as a deficit component. The continuing rise in unemployment means misery is creeping up…

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Investors on Alert: Japan’s Nikkei Index Crashes 1000 Points In Less than a Week

Japan’s Nikkei Index, which measures the top 225 companies on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, went into an almost immediate freefall after Tsunami waves began washing up on the country’s northeast coast. The Nikkei 255 Index, which reached a high of 10,600 point on Wednesday, had tumbled to 10,250 points by Friday’s close. The earthquake off the coast of Japan hit at approximately 2:00 PM Japanese time on Friday, March 11.

By close of business Monday, as Japanese officials struggled to maintain order amid a potential nuclear meltdown at multiple reactors, stocks had dropped an additional 650 points, wiping out over 6% of the index’s market capitalization. The country’s central bank, the Bank of Japan, has responded to the disaster by injecting some 15 Trillion Yen ($183 Billion) into the financial system in an attempt to stabilize markets and stem panic.

Other stock markets around the world fared better than Japan as events on the ground, recovery efforts, and the Tsunami’s impact on the Japanese economy remain in question.  Japan is the world’s third largest economy after the European Union and The United States.

With northern Japan in ruin, tens of thousands still missing, and millions without power, Japan will most certainly see negative economic growth in the short-term. If the nuclear reactors, which some Japanese officials say are under control, were to go into complete meltdown and send radiation into surrounding areas and across the Pacific, the economic effects on Japan, Asia and the rest of the world would be felt within days, with stock markets providing a forewarning as panicked investors sell off assets, especially in consumer-related industries like manufacturing, transportation, and retail.

Most stock markets outside of Japan kept losses on Monday to under 2%, however, the legitimacy of the official news reports coming out of Japan are in question, especially with respect to the nuclear power plants. Mixed information has only added to the confusion, with some officials reporting that everything is under control, while others indicate that fuel rods are completely exposed and have melted down, or are in the process of melting down. Radiation exposure has been measured in residents on the ground, as well as on a US Naval vessel traveling through a radiation cloud, and US emergency response helicopters on which 17 members of the US Navy were treated for radiation contamination.

News reports continue to be mixed, leading to uncertainty, but not yet complete panic, in financial markets. Gold and other precious metals, which are considered to be measures of not just inflation, but global crisis sentiment, have seen minor gains on Monday suggesting that global investors have not yet shifted capital into safe haven assets.

With an already failing economic recovery in the US, a black swan variable such as the Japanese quake, Tsunami and nuclear crisis may very well be the tipping point that sends the entire world into a financial and economic catastrophe.

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S&P 500 Index Still on Track to Achieve 1,500 this Year

By Mitchell Clark, B.Comm.

If you are looking for value in this stock market, you’ll be hard-pressed to find it. Stock-picking is tough when the market’s already gone up and finding good deals is even more difficult.

At the speculative end of the stock market, I would say that U.S.-listed Chinese stocks offer the most value, but this entire sector has been in the doldrums for quite a while now. A lot of these stocks have gone down because investors lost confidence in management’s ability to report their numbers honestly. While this applies to a number of companies that have tried to misreport their business success, it hasn’t happened with all of them. Accordingly, there are some attractive bargains out there. The investment risk comes from the time horizon for these stocks to get recognized by institutional investors once again. In some cases, it may not happen at all.

While fourth-quarter earnings season is considered over, all kinds of smaller companies are just now reporting their financial results for last quarter and fiscal 2010. This is particularly the case with Chinese companies as well as a lot of junior miners. Mining businesses continue to harbor some of the best micro-cap stocks as far as I’m concerned.

As the broader stock market continues to digest events in North Africa and higher oil prices, some investor fervor has been taken away. I still think, however, that the near-term trend is up and that the S&P 500 Index will achieve 1,500 this year. This would constitute a full recovery from the financial crisis and return the index to about breakeven with its previous highs set over the last 12 years. If this happens, you could think of the achievement as representing a new beginning for the stock market. It’s been a long road since the technology bubble in the late 90s.

If the right shoulder of the S&P 500 Index does get formed (which I think will happen), it’s easy to look at the chart and worry about the future. The mirroring effect is stunningly apparent and it suggests that the current major recovery could be met with a crashing stock market over the next several years. The likelihood of this happening is remote, however, unless there is some major shock to the system like a new war or a major currency upheaval. If you look at a very long-term chart of the S&P 500 Index, you might very well conclude that stock prices are just returning to a historically normal price performance.

What’s really required to get the economy booming again is some major innovative event that the whole world can rally around. We need something big to come to market, like the creation of the Internet, to generate a new wave of wealth. I think this can be achieved this decade and I think it’s likely to be related to alternative energy. I’m bullish on the future, because I believe in entrepreneurship and its ability to create enormous amounts of wealth in society. The economy today is still in recovery mode from the major collapse of the housing market. It’s going to take a while yet for the system to balance itself out. But, no other economy on the planet is more capable of correcting itself faster and more effectively than the American economy. I certainly wouldn’t bet against it.

Mitchell is a Senior Editor at Lombardi Financial specializing in small-cap stocks. He’s the editor of a variety of popular Lombardi Financial newsletters, such as Penny Stock Reporter, Micro-Cap Stocks, and Monster Profits. Mitchell, who has been with Lombardi Financial for thirteen years, won the Jack Madden Prize in economic history and is a long-time student of equity markets. Prior to joining Lombardi, Mitchell was as a stock broker for a large investment bank. While Mitchell is not working he enjoys fly fishing, motorcycling and tending to his hobby farm.

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